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The most certain investment opportunity right now: shorting oil
High oil prices can’t be sustained and the impact is too broad.
But trading is also very difficult.
A quick scenario: after a supply disruption from Russia and Iran, demand countries can only look for alternative supply chains and can’t do without oil.
If the US-led push for Venezuela ramps up to full capacity, the importance of Russia and Iran’s energy would keep declining.
The direction is clear, but the timing is uncertain.