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Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: This month, the estimated cotton import volume for the 2025/26 crop year has been increased by 100k tons from last month to 1.5 million tons.

K-LinePoet
This month’s estimate of the cotton supply-and-demand outlook for the 2025/26 crop year remains unchanged from last month. According to monitoring by the China Cotton Network, as of May 28, the national cumulative cotton sales rate was 96.2%, up 8.0 percentage points year-on-year, and up 16.4 percentage points versus the average of the past four years. Due to the impact of the traditional off-season for textiles, textile mills’ overall raw material inventories remain low, and they continue to make just-needed purchases. For Xinjiang cotton, the target price for 2026—2028 is 18,600 yuan per ton, with subsidies based on a fixed Xinjiang cotton production volume of 5.10 million tons. Based on comprehensive consultation with various parties, the actual Xinjiang cotton planted area decline is smaller than expected. This month, the planted area for the 2026/27 cotton crop year was adjusted upward by 120 thousand hectares (1.8 million mu) from last month to 2,873 thousand hectares (43.10 million mu). Due to adverse weather in Xinjiang earlier on, such as low temperatures and sand dust, the yield per mu was slightly reduced by 2 kg to 147 kg. Total output was increased by 190 thousand tons to 6.34 million tons. According to monitoring by the China Cotton Information Network, as of June 8, cotton across all of Xinjiang has entered the concentrated squaring stage, with a squaring rate of about 94.7%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year.
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