I’ve been watching this SpaceX roller-coaster lately. At the time of its listing, it wore the halo of the largest IPO in history, surging as high as $225. In just a little over a month, it fell below the $135 offer price, and its market cap simply evaporated by more than ten thousand billions—making a strong impression on me.

Objectively, its hard实力 is beyond doubt. Starlink is currently the only stable cash cow, with tens of millions of paying users worldwide. Profits are rising steadily, and it firmly dominates the high-quality satellite broadband track. But the problems are equally glaring: Starship R&D and xAI’s artificial intelligence are money-guzzling beasts. Last year, it still posted large overall losses, and in the first quarter, the loss nearly matched the full-year figure from last year. Before the IPO, the valuation had already priced in decades of distant imagination—Mars colonization, space computing power—so the premium was simply too high.

Looking ahead, in the near term, it will still face selling pressure as internal restricted shares are gradually unlocked, so sentiment is unlikely to recover quickly. The long-term turning point comes down to two things: whether Starlink can sustain its growth rate, and when Starship will achieve commercialized, real-world landing. I admire Musk’s ambition to look up at the stars, but investing can’t be storytelling based on sentiment alone. Liking the sector is one thing; paying for expectations that have been overdrawn is another. #夏日创作营