Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Estimates for the domestic sugar price range reduced to RMB 5,300–5,600 per ton

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, this month the 2025/26 fiscal year sugar production data have been calibrated: production was increased by 150k tons to 12.95 million tons, and the estimated domestic sugar price range was lowered to 5,300-5,600 yuan per ton. Currently, nationwide sugar production for the 2025/26 fiscal year has ended. Domestic supply is generally sufficient. With the summer peak consumption season beginning, it is expected to help inventories gradually be worked through, and market operations are overall stable. This month’s forecast of China’s 2026/27 sugar supply and demand conditions remains unchanged from last month. Recently, due to Typhoon “Maysak” and the monsoon, major producing areas such as Guangxi and Guangdong have experienced persistent heavy rainfall, increasing uncertainty around sugarcane production. Internationally, in Brazil, sugarcane-to-sugar production has declined year over year as sugarcane processing tied to sugar is affected by increased ethanol demand, resulting in lower sugar output. This is compounded by below-average monsoon rainfall in India and signs of hot, dry conditions in Europe, creating a risk of reduced sugarcane yields and tightening global sugar supply expectations. In the next period, it is necessary to closely monitor the pace of domestic inventory drawdown, the actual impact of typhoon damage in major producing areas, Brazil’s sugar production schedule, and the effects of global extreme weather.
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