#夏日创作营 Gold: FOMC + PCE triple impact hits, next week first look for consolidation

Conclusion: Next week (7/27-7/31), gold will trade mostly sideways with a neutral bias.

There are two reasons:
— US tech stocks keep falling, but gold doesn’t catch up. Last night, SOXX semiconductor ETF -4.40%, Nasdaq 100 -1.15%. New York gold rose only slightly. This is because the 10-year real U.S. Treasury yield climbed from 2.35% to 2.43%, pushing real rates to the top—safe-haven buying can’t open the positions.
Second: Next week has the central bank meeting + GDP + PCE triple data releases. On 7/29 the Fed holds its rate decision; on 7/30, on the same day, the initial reading for Q2 GDP and June PCE are released. Intraday, it may rise then fall or fall then rise—consolidation first, then choose a direction.

Reasons to expect consolidation next week
Last night already validated it: tech falling ≠ gold rising.

On 7/24, Nasdaq 100 -1.15%, SOXX semiconductor ETF -4.40%, SanDisk -10.79%, Micron -6.99%, but New York gold only edged up 0.08%.

The key is that the 10-year real U.S. Treasury yield rose this week from 2.35% to 2.43%, and nominal yields rose from 4.60% to 4.69%. Real rates are trending higher, lifting gold’s opportunity cost—safe-haven demand can’t build positions.

Geopolitical risk premium has been “consumed” repeatedly. The “V-shaped” move this week has already paid the bill.

On 7/22, the Middle East conflict pushed gold to $4,171, but on 7/23 optimism around US-Iran talks rekindled hopes, and crude oil initially dropped more than 5%. Gold gave back $80 in a single day. This week’s total gain is only 0.81%, which doesn’t look big. But the intraday high-low range is close to 4.6%—“the biggest intraday rally ≠ the whole-week gain.” The same story may repeat next week.

With 7/29 rate decision + 7/30 GDP+PCE triple data releases next week, intraday it could flip twice. The Fed’s statement from the 7/28-29 meeting will be released at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on 7/30, followed immediately by Powell’s press conference. The same day, at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern (8:30 p.m. Beijing time on 7/30), the initial Q2 GDP and June PCE land at the same time. Trading the rate decision first in the early hours, then trading the data later at night—gold is likely to rise then fall or fall then rise; a one-time trend is unlikely to form.

Signals to watch next week
On 7/29, whether Powell’s wording turns more dovish and whether he leaves room for future rate cuts. This meeting has no new dot plot; the rate outcome itself isn’t very surprising. The key is how Powell evaluates the impact of oil prices on inflation, and whether he mentions tariffs again. If he leaves a door open to cuts, gold could push up toward $4,150-$4,180. If he continues to emphasize sticky inflation, gold is likely to pull back toward the $4,000 area.

On 7/30, the initial reading for US Q2 GDP + year-on-year June PCE.
With both data points landing at the same time, it’s the easiest setup for a “flip twice in a day” event. If GDP is weak + PCE comes in below expectations = rate-cut expectations pick up again, gold rallies. If GDP and PCE both come in strong = real rates keep rising and gold faces pressure, pulling back toward the $3,955 area. If one is strong and the other is weak = consolidation and digestion.

Can silver hold above 60, and whether crude oil breaks above 100 again.
This week, silver was dumped from 60.03 to 58.49, down 2.5% cumulatively. The gold-silver correlation is still repairing. New York crude oil returned to around $90.5 on Friday. If next week brings more uncertainty in the Middle East and silver returns above 60, then the gold-silver correlation could drive gold’s second push higher. Otherwise, if crude keeps sliding, gold’s geopolitical risk premium won’t be able to hold up.

Direction for the next 1-2 weeks
4055 (7/24 close) vs 4,171 (this week’s intraday high). The bulls have already lost the 4,171 line this week. Next week’s key support is 4,000-4,050 (this week’s pullback level + the integer level). A confirmed break below would accelerate the pullback toward 3,955 (last week’s key defensive level).

Resistance above looks at 4,135-4,170 (this week’s trapped longs and pressure zone). Only after firmly holding above 4,170 would gold have a condition to challenge $4,200 again.

Consolidation-range thinking comes first: switch to a trend-following strategy after the 7/30 GDP+PCE prints. This week’s price action hasn’t broken the range, so stay steady and gamble less—no leverage.

This article’s viewpoints are for sharing only and do not constitute any investment advice.