7.25 Market Overview Analysis:

Today, BTC has been weakly fluctuating around the $64k level, with shorts dominating, but there is clear support/absorption around $63.8 thousand. Weekend liquidity is thin, rebounds lack volume, and this is more like a “technical pullback during a downtrend” rather than a trend reversal. Below, I’ll break down the technical structure, key price levels, and trading points clearly.

Simply put: the price hasn’t collapsed, but the bulls are getting badly hurt. Every rebound is being treated as an opportunity to sell into—this is a classic sign of weak range-bound action.

From the Chan theory (缠论) and moving-average structure, BTC’s secondary-level descending segment since the $66,986 high is still unfolding:

Central range: [$63,500 - $66,500], and price is currently struggling near the lower edge of the central range

MACD: On the 4-hour chart, the fast and slow lines are diverging below zero, and the green histogram bars are expanding; on the daily chart, RSI is at the edge of oversold

Bollinger Bands: On the 4-hour chart, the lower band has already been pierced; the mid-band at 64280-64530 forms the first upside resistance

Moving averages: The 4-hour 200 EMA overlaps with the prior consolidation range near $64k, which is the line between bulls and bears

After breaking below $64,000 intraday, price quickly reclaimed it, indicating some absorption at that level; but 1-hour MACD bullish divergence at the bottom coexists with the extended descending segment, suggesting rebound momentum is building up, though no confirmable bottom fractal has formed yet.

As always: if you don’t know how to trade, come chat with me in the livestream room 😁#策略