Analysis subject: spot gold

Analysis time: July 25 (Saturday), for next week’s outlook
Core view: Gold is currently trading in a range. The bigger direction remains downward. You need to watch for whether key levels break.

I. Daily timeframe analysis
1. Since the drop in March, gold has been in an overall weak downward trend, and the large downtrend has not changed.
2. 4200 is the key watershed: only after a valid breakdown of 4200 can the market see a larger rebound space, targeting the prior resistance zone at 4300–4400.
3. The rebound in the first three days of this week is still within the downtrend channel and has not changed the broader trend.

II. 4-hour timeframe: trend replay
1. Last Friday formed a low at 3960. On Monday it tested 3980, then rebounded to 4040, and subsequently pulled back to the 4000 area.
2. After breaking above 4040 to the upside, it rebounded to 4085. After pulling back near 4040 again, it broke again, surged to 4140, then pulled back to around 4100, with the highest reaching 4166.
3. The Thursday rebound to 4140 failed. After breaking below 4100, the selloff accelerated down to 4040. On Friday, it continued to probe lower to 4020. During the European session, the downside move did not continue; it broke up above 4050, and in the evening rebounded to 4080.

III. Key levels and trend projection for next week
1. Resistance above: focus on 4080. If there is a valid break, further upside could be 4110, 4140, and 4166.
2. Support below: focus on 4020. If there is a valid breakdown, downward space will open up, with potential moves toward 4000, 3980, and 3960; once it breaks below 3900, the downside space will expand further.
3. Overall outlook: Next week, gold will mainly stay in a range. The bigger direction remains downward. In terms of trading, you should focus on whether 4080 and 4020 break.

Risk warning: The above content is personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute any trading basis.
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