#夏日创作营 Do you think BTC will break below 57K?

1、Global M2 and BTC have diverged for nearly a year, and it may move toward a correction;

2、From 2022.12 to 2026.12, AI certainty has played out to this point. The consensus value trough has been temporarily filled, and funds have motivation to choose BTC;

3、The U.S. Federal Reserve has zero tolerance for inflation, and the balance-sheet reduction is a thunderclap. The market has seen through its true intentions, and rate-cut conditions are quietly taking shape;

4、AI has driven unemployment rates higher, weakening residents’ purchasing power. But AI-driven production efficiency has surged, which also creates oversupply.
Inflation and rate-hike expectations may suddenly flip in the second half of 2026 and in 2027 into deflation and rate-cut expectations, directly triggering strong stimulus with direct payments.

The reason this could reverse quickly is that it hasn’t been fully priced in yet—hidden income caused by AI substitution has become concentrated.
Once these finally surface, the market will notice: demand collapses and oversupply coexist.