Today is Saturday, July 25, 2026.

I. News: Macroeconomic and policy pressure both hit
On the macro front, seven major U.S. tech giants saw a sell-off wave in the U.S. stock market. The total market value evaporated by $797B in a single day, and Tesla fell more than 14%. Trump plans to impose 10%-12.5% tariffs on 60 trade partners. Inflation expectations are heating up, and the market worries that the Fed rate cuts may be delayed, putting overall pressure on risk assets.
On the policy front, the market had broadly expected the U.S. 《CLARITY Digital Assets Bill》 to be implemented—this was an important fundamental support for the current upswing. But the bill has stalled in bipartisan negotiations, with only 35% remaining based on probability estimates. The Senate Majority Leader said it would be difficult for the bill to be put to a vote before the Congress summer recess, and the difficulty of passing it this year is increasing. Regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress upside potential in the crypto market.
We are currently in a typical pattern of “policy expectations fail + macro negatives resonate.”

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II. Technicals: Shorts dominate; rallies are a sell-short window
Bitcoin (BTC)
After yesterday’s surge to $65,785, it encountered strong sell pressure, dropping to $63,666 within seven hours. The current price is around $64,000.
4-hour timeframe: The lower band of the Bollinger Bands has been pierced, with a clear bearish lineup; MACD bullish momentum keeps fading; RSI falls to 33.44. Although it has entered oversold territory, capital refuses to step in—early-session rebounds face pressure around the Bollinger middle band near 64,280. Above that, there is strong resistance near 64,300.
Bull-bear pivot: $64,000. Not only is this a psychological level, it also aligns with the 4-hour 200 EMA and the prior consolidation zone. This rebound is merely a technical pullback during a decline; overall it remains weak.
Ethereum (ETH)
Sentiment weakens in sync; the current price is about $1,862. The Bollinger middle band at 1,900 forms medium-term strong resistance, while 1,845 on the lower band is a key support. In the 4-hour timeframe, rebound-phase volume gradually diminishes, and the medium-term downward structure remains unchanged.
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III. On-chain data: Intense long/short game
Liquidation data: In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the whole network was $287 million. Long positions liquidated at $226 million, while short positions liquidated at only $61.19 million. Among them, BTC long liquidations were $67.44 million, and short liquidations were only $15.26 million—bearish pain for longs is severe.
Liquidation thresholds: If BTC breaks below $61,193, the mainstream CEXs’ cumulative long liquidation strength will reach $1.01B. If ETH breaks below $1,774, long liquidation strength will reach $611M.
On-chain activity: The number of BTC active addresses over 24h rose 12.7% month-over-month, but the actual on-chain transaction volume fell 9.79% month-over-month—activity rises while transaction volume shrinks.
A certain address opened a 40x leveraged long position with 603.71 BTC at an average price of $64,469; it is currently down by about $259k.

Chu Yuechen: 7.25 Bitcoin and ETH trading reference
The bearish trend has not ended yet; in the short term, rallies are a sell-short window. Before the policy picture becomes clear, the market will most likely stay in a weak, range-bound state. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so volatility can easily be amplified—stay alert for cross-market panic sentiment transmission.
When the price rebounded near 67,000, we suggested trying to enter short positions, and shorts near 1,950 on ETH also did pretty well. Over the past two days, we’ve basically stuck to the idea of taking short positions on rebounds. Yesterday, we also opened a short near 65,300, and the targets of 63,500–64,000 were achieved.
For ETH, the short positions in sync also essentially completed the target of 1,850.
Over the weekend, liquidity is low and price fluctuations are relatively small. In terms of execution, there’s not much to add—just maintain the rebound-short approach. I usually carry some ultra-short trades over the weekend too—if Bitcoin moves 300–500 points, I typically take the profit and run.
For the larger range, support to watch is around 63,500; if it breaks, you can look toward the 61,500–61,000 range. On the upside, watch 64,300 for the short term, and then 65,800 as resistance. For weekend action, there’s no need to be overly specific about exact levels—just pull some “wool” from the short-term moves. When the market volatility picks up and changes a lot, we’ll lay out details again. For ETH, trade with reference to the 1,800–1,900 range.
Specific execution depends on real-time changes in the行情—enter trades when the timing is right! There are short-term trades every day, while the medium- and long-term positioning continues. Welcome to exchange views. $BTC #比特币 #ETH ‌