July 25, 2026, Saturday ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures Practical Technical Trading Strategy

I. Daily Market Core Outlook

The overall daily trend remains under bearish pressure with no resolution; the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have tightened into a narrow-range consolidation. Weekend liquidity has shrunk significantly, and bull/bear wick stop-hunts occur frequently; price action is fully correlated with BTC. Before a breakout with volume above key resistance, prioritize short selling at the range highs; low-long positions are only for light, short-term skirmishes. Strictly forbid holding oversized positions overnight. Overall, reduce trading frequency.

Key Critical Price Levels

Resistance: 1945-1955 (strong daily pressure), 1895-1910 (core intraday short-selling zone), 1878 (1-hour long/short pivot)
Support: 1835-1840 (intraday pivot support), 1810-1820 (strong medium-term support), 1760-1770 (trend defense bottom)

II. Three Standardized, Deployable Trade Setups

Setup 1: Sell High at Resistance (primary intraday strategy, execute first)

1. Entry range: 1895~1910

2. Entry confirmation conditions: 1-hour candle spikes to the upside and closes with a long upper wick; RSI > 68 shows stalling; trading volume shrinks. Refuse to open a position directly when a single wick spikes higher.

3. Take-profit in layers: First target 1878—cut 50%; move stop-loss up to breakeven (entry cost) at the same time. Second target 1835—exit all.

4. Stop-loss level: 1960 (buffer reserved above strong pressure; avoid weekend wick liquidations)

5. Position leverage: Total capital within 3%, leverage 3-5x per position

Setup 2: Buy Low at Support (secondary, only light positioning to test)

1. Entry range: 1835~1840

2. Entry confirmation conditions: Two consecutive 1-hour candles are bullish to signal a stop in the fall; buy-side demand below shows volume absorption; do not bottom-fish on a single wick probe downward.

3. Take-profit in layers: First target 1878—cut half; second target 1900—exit all. Do not hold for a long-term long thesis.

4. Stop-loss level: 1820 (if it breaks intraday short-term support, the long logic fails)

5. Position leverage: Total capital within 2%, leverage 2-4x; position size lower than shorts

Setup 3: Breakout Follow-Through Trade (backup for extreme conditions)

Bear breakout short

Trigger condition: A 1-hour body closes below 1835 with volume expanding downward
Entry point: Short around 1830 in a trend-following manner
Target 1: 1810; Target 2: 1765
Stop-loss: Above the 1878 pivot line

Bull breakout long (low probability)

Trigger condition: High volume holds above 1955, with 4-hour consecutive bullish strength
Entry point: Chase long at 1960
Target: 1990
Stop-loss: 1900

III. Weekend-Exclusive Hard Risk Control Rules

1. Position management: Total intraday position risk must not exceed 5% of principal; the maximum loss on any single trade must be limited to within 1% of account funds.

2. Margin mode: Use isolated margin per position uniformly to isolate liquidation risk from a single market event; prohibit cross-margin with full-account cross collateral.

3. Mandatory stop-loss requirement: Place stop-loss orders in advance for all orders. With weekend volatility amplified, widen the stop-loss range by 1.5x versus weekdays. No stop-loss means no opening a position.

4. Holding time limit: Fully close all positions before 22:00 intraday. Do not hold positions across the post-midnight liquidity “vacuum” period to avoid large wick stop-hunts.

5. Leverage limits: In the ranging zone, maximum leverage is 5x. Trend-following breakout break trades must not exceed 8x. Eliminate any use of leverage above 10x.

6. Fee avoidance: Current funding rate is negative; do not hold long positions long-term, and avoid positions carried through the midnight settlement.

IV. In-Session Execution Details: Key Pitfall Avoidance Points

1. Filter fake breakouts: The 1878 pivot-resistance and the 1835 pivot-support are prone to trap long/short wick stop-hunts; you must wait for a 1-hour full candle close to confirm the signal.

2. Slippage control: Weekend order books are thinner and market orders suffer severe slippage; use only limit orders to enter.

3. BTC correlation filter: When BTC has not broken above 65380 and has not fallen below 64940 (both key pivots), reduce ETH opening frequency—watch more, move less.

4. Timeframe signal priority: Use 4-hour to set the main trend; use 1-hour for precise entries. The 15-minute timeframe is only for signal filtering—do not open trades solely based on small-cycle signals.

5. Take-profit discipline: Upon reaching the first target, reduce position first to lock in profit. In a choppy market, the room for swing trades is limited—do not blindly chase oversized moves.

V. Contingency Plans for Dynamic Market Switching

1. Range consolidation in 1835-1878 (highest probability): strictly sell high and buy low; quick in, quick out; do not hold long-term “head” positions.

2. Valid breakdown below 1835: abandon the long idea entirely; follow through with short positions; downside targets look toward 1810 and 1765.

3. Volume expansion and firm hold above 1878: lightly participate in longs; on pullbacks to 1895-1910, still treat them primarily as high shorts. If 1955 is not broken, do not change the bearish major tone.

4. Volume expansion and breakout above 1955: short-term structure strengthens; cancel all high-short setups and switch to a trend-following long bias#夏日创作营 $ETH ‌