July 25, 2026 (Saturday) SOL/USDT Perpetual Futures Technical Analysis

I. Overall Market Tone

The daily chart’s medium-to-long term trend is bearish; in the short term, it has entered a critical support decision range. The 4-hour chart has formed a descending channel; throughout the entire rebound, prices were capped by moving averages. Altcoins are tracking BTC lower, with a volatility range larger than Bitcoin’s. Disagreement between bulls and bears is intensifying; current price action is mainly a battle between existing funds. Any rebound without volume is entirely viewed as bearish repair. Before breaking key resistance, prioritize taking shorts in the direction of the trend.

II. Breakdown of Indicators Across Multiple Timeframes

1. Daily timeframe

• Moving averages: Price is trading above the 50-day moving average at 73.6 and below the 200-day moving average at 88.8. The medium-to-long term bearish structure remains unchanged. The 50-day MA is the last line of defense for daily bulls;

• MACD: Running below the zero axis, the red histogram bars keep shrinking, and bullish rebound momentum is exhausting;

• RSI: 39.4, near the oversold zone. There is a need for a small technical rebound, but there is no reversal signal;

• Bollinger Bands: The channel is opening downward. The midline at 77 is strong resistance on the daily chart, while the lower band at 70 is medium-term support.

2. 4-hour timeframe

• Moving averages: The short-term EMA15 has crossed below EMA30 in a dead cross. Price has been continuously pressured by moving-average suppression; each rebound cycle fails and falls back to the moving averages;

• MACD: DIF continues to decline, green histogram bars expand, and short-term bearish momentum is sufficient;

• Pattern: A bearish continuation structure after the breakdown of a double-top. The descending channel is intact, and upside rebound space is limited.

3. 1-hour short-term

Small-range consolidation has become dull, with frequent wick stop-outs sweeping losses. Liquidity is weaker than BTC; even a small amount of capital can trigger sharp wick swings. This is not suitable for heavy-position short-term trading.

III. Layered Key Price Levels

Resistance zones (from top to bottom)

1. Daily strong resistance: 77.5–78 (daily Bollinger midline + a densely trapped zone; only a volume-backed hold above it can turn short-term bearishness)

2. Intraday intermediate resistance: 76–76.5 (4H moving average pressure; the first short-selling range for rebounds)

3. Short-term pivot resistance: 75.4 (1H bull-bear line; once price stands above it, repair rebounds can begin)

Support zones (from bottom to top)

1. Intraday first support: 73.5–74 (daily 50-day moving average; core intraday bull defense)

2. Medium-term strong support: 70–70.6 (a prior accumulation zone; a breakdown opens deeper downside space)

3. Extreme support: 67.2 (a concentrated liquidation area for large long positions; once broken, directly look at the 60 level)

IV. Contract Funding and Market Sentiment

1. Long/short positioning: The overall long/short ratio across the market is 0.93, with shorts holding a slight advantage. Large traders and institutions continue adding to short positions. Large short positions are sitting on substantial unrealized gains, and they keep adding shorts on rebounds;

2. Trading volume: In the past two days, price fell on shrinking volume; rebounds came with no volume. Selling pressure is stable, and buy-side follow-through is weak;

3. Funding rate: Slightly negative funding rate; long positions’ willingness to hold is subdued;

4. Fear and Greed Index: 28. The market is in the fear zone, with a clear risk-avoidance preference. Altcoin capital is continuously flowing out of the SOL track.

V. Scenario Projections for Three Market Outlooks

1. Bullish repair scenario (low probability)
An hourly close above 75.4, with a short-term rebound capped by pressure at 76–76.5. Lightly open short-term long positions; target 76.3; stop-loss at 73.3. Only if there is a volume-backed break above 78 can the rebound extend to 79.5.

2. Neutral range consolidation (highest probability)
Price oscillates back and forth within 73.5–75.4. Short at the upper edge and take small long attempts at the lower edge. Move quickly in and out; do not hold positions overnight.

3. Bearish trend-following scenario
A confirmed breakdown below 73.5 and a daily close below that level. Follow the trend to chase shorts. First target 70.5; if there is a volume-backed break below 70, then watch 67.2.

VI. Core Risk Points on the Chart

1. Correlation risk: SOL’s volatility is far higher than BTC’s. BTC wick swings will cause SOL to experience double the volatility, so stop-losses need to be widened;

2. Bull trap wick: The 75.4 resistance level is prone to short-term wick spike up and then rejection. Must wait for the K-line to close to confirm before entering a trade;

3. Structural suppression: Medium- to long-term moving averages are fully pointing downward. All rebounds are only repairs during a down move; do not view it as a major bullish reversal. #夏日创作营 $SOL