July 25, 2026, Saturday BTC/USDT perpetual contract technical analysis

I. Overall market direction

On the daily timeframe, it remains in a weak corrective consolidation pattern after a decline; the medium-term moving-average bearish pressure has not been lifted. On the 4-hour timeframe, short-term bullish momentum has largely exhausted; long and short positions are basically balanced, with no one-sided capital tilt. Trading during the day is mainly range-bound, with breakouts requiring confirmation on increased volume, and in low-volume conditions, priority should be given to high-sell and low-buy.

II. Indicator breakdown across multiple timeframes

1. Daily timeframe

1. Moving averages: Price has held above the EMA15 short-term moving average, but it faces pressure from the EMA30 and EMA60 medium- and long-term moving averages; the medium-term downtrend has not been reversed;

2. MACD: A golden cross below the zero axis; red histogram bars are shrinking continuously, and the rebound momentum gradually weakens;

3. Bollinger Bands: The channel is flat. The mid-band at 64050 is the daily core support, and the upper band at 66300 is strong resistance;

4. RSI: 52 is in the neutral range, with no overbought/oversold conditions; the oscillation nature is clear.

2. 4-hour timeframe

1. Moving averages: Price broke below the 4H Bollinger mid-band; EMA15 fell below EMA30 to form a death cross, giving short-term bears an advantage;

2. MACD: DIF falls below DEA; the green histogram continues to expand, and short-term pullback pressure is apparent;

3. Structure: The prior rally into 66800 faced rejection and pulled back, forming a descending channel; price retraces to test the lower boundary support zone of the channel.

3. Short-term 1 hour

Oscillates within a small range; indicators repeatedly become dull. Frequent wicks sweep stop-losses—this is not suitable for chasing orders with heavy positions. Wait for signals at key levels before entering.

III. Core key price levels, layered

Resistance zones (from top to bottom)

1. Strong resistance: 66700–66900 (previous high supply zone; multiple attempts to rally and then fall back—only with a breakout on increased volume can it turn bullish)

2. Intraday medium resistance: 65700–66000 (4H Bollinger mid-band; the first short-selling zone for rebounds)

3. Short-term weak resistance: 65380 (pivot point between long and short; if price stands above it, the corrective/repair move likely continues)

Support zones (from bottom to top)

1. Intraday first support: 64940 (below the pivot line; losing it triggers a deeper retracement)

2. Core strong support: 64000–64300 (daily Bollinger mid-band plus a previous period of dense traded-activity demand zone)

3. Extreme structural support: 62700–63000 (the daily bulls’ defense bottom line; if broken, the structure of this rebound is damaged)

IV. Contract funding and sentiment

1. Long/short positioning: The global long/short ratio is 49.53% long / 50.47% short. Shorts are slightly dominant, but the disagreement is extremely small, with no extreme crowded positioning;

2. Funding rate: Slightly negative. Longs’ willingness to add positions is muted; rebounds are driven mainly by passive short covering;

3. Options hedging: Institutions continue to increase holdings of bearish put options. The market does not recognize the persistence of low-volume rebounds; upside sell pressure is sufficient;

4. Trading volume: The past two days have seen continuous shrinking volume. With range-bound action, the probability of a strong one-sided trend is relatively low.

V. Three scenario projections and the baseline approach

1. Bullish scenario: A 1-hour close holds above 65380; expect a rebound toward 65700–66000. Take light-position short-term longs with a target at 66000 and a stop-loss at 64900. If there is a breakout on increased volume above 66900, follow the trend to chase longs targeting 67500.

2. Neutral oscillation (highest probability): Price swings back and forth in the 64940–65380 range. Short at the upper edge and long at the lower edge—don’t chase; quick in and quick out.

3. Bearish scenario: If there is a valid breakdown of 64940 and a 1-hour close below, take a trend-following short. The first target is 64000; if it breaks, look around 62800.

VI. Core risk points in the order book/price action

1. No-volume fake breakout: Breakouts above and below key levels often involve wick-pin moves that lure longs/shorts. You must wait for K-line closing confirmation before opening positions;

2. Inter-market linkage risk: BTC’s movement is tied to US stock tech markets; abnormal moves in US stocks can trigger wick-pin contract action;

3. Medium-term suppression: The 66900 resistance has been tested multiple times without breaking. Before any volume expansion, all rebounds are defined as “repairs,” not a reversal. #夏日创作营 $BTC ‌