At 5:00 a.m., the market fooled everyone

— The close was calm, but the true attitude of the capital was already written into the late-session action.

At 5:00 a.m., the global markets closed with a certain air of deception:

U.S. stocks were mixed: the Dow was up 0.46%, the S&P 500 was basically flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.64%;

Gold and the U.S. dollar were basically flat;

Oil prices spiked and then pulled back; U.S. crude settled at $90;

After the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched the 4.7% level, it retreated and ended at 4.67%.

First, the closing figures look unremarkable, but if you look at the intraday details, major markets reversed in the five hours before the close—gold kept falling for five straight hours, oil kept rising for five straight hours, the U.S. Dollar Index regained all of that day’s losses, and S&P 500 futures were down in four of those five hours. This suggests that next Monday’s open won’t be calm. In the last few hours before the weekend ends, markets often reflect institutions’ true thinking—markets have returned to the combination of “high oil prices, a strong dollar, weak gold, and weak stock indexes.”

Second, even though oil prices pulled back, the risk premium hasn’t disappeared. Friday’s “optimism” came from news that Pakistan is pushing the U.S. and Iran to resume talks. The market is betting that “Trump will ultimately cool down”—that is a hope, not reality. As long as oil is still around 90, the market won’t believe that inflation risk has already passed.

Third, U.S. stocks being mixed—rather than falling across the board—contains more information. The Dow rose, while the S&P 500 was flat, at least showing the market hasn’t continued to spiral out of control. For next week’s Asian markets, it’s “half a candy,” easing some of the tension at the open. But the Nasdaq’s decline, especially amid pressure from AI earnings and volatility in semiconductors, will continue to weigh on Korea’s tech stocks.

Fourth, the bond market still hasn’t sided with equities. This week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 4.66%. Although it slipped slightly on Friday, it still remains in a high-pressure zone. More importantly, the market has again repriced the possibility that there will be two more rate hikes this year. Next week, the probability of a rate hike even rises to 36%. At the Federal Reserve meeting next week, if it holds steady, it would theoretically create a “dovish surprise.” The problem is that with oil prices still high, the Fed can hardly give the market clear reassurance.

Fifth, next week has three things at the same time: the Fed meeting, earnings reports from giants like Microsoft and Apple, and whether the Middle East situation will ease. These three matters line up with the three questions the market fears most: the Fed—answering the rate-hike question; tech earnings—answering the AI question; and the Middle East situation—answering the oil-price question.

The market hasn’t kept worsening, but it also hasn’t completed a repair—it has simply pushed the real verdict to next week.