SpaceX’s close hits a new all-time low since going public; Morgan Stanley says to buy: once it drops to $100, the AI business has zero valuation.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated his SpaceX upgrades and a $300 price target to clients on Friday, saying that market pessimism has already fallen out of sync with fundamentals. He pointed to a key price level: if the stock really falls to $100—exactly as most investors expect—then the market would be valuing the AI business made up of Grok and Cursor at zero, or even negative. On the same day, SpaceX’s closing price hit a new all-time low since listing, while Starship had just completed its 13th test flight.
（Background: Wall Street investment bank Raymond James gave SpaceX an eye-popping “$800” price target, and the white-haired bull-god Serenity mocked: “Is this written just for laughs?”）
（Background info: Why is SpaceX’s biggest IPO in history criticized as “the ultimate form of financial nihilism”?）

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• Falling to 100 bucks means Grok and Cursor are basically given away
• August 6 is the real stress test
• The rocket side, meanwhile, delivers as promised

On Friday, SpaceX turned in two sets of results that were completely opposite.

At Starbase in Texas, the super heavy rocket Starship completed its 13th test flight, first placing 20 new-generation Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, with the upper stage making the softest splashdown in the company’s history over the Indian Ocean.

On Wall Street, SPCX closed at $115.07, the lowest closing price since it listed in June. It briefly dropped below $111 intraday, then fell further to $113.37 after hours, a decline of 1.48%.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas chose to send out a report that day, reiterating an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. In the note to clients, he wrote:

“We believe there is a disconnect between investors’ increasingly pessimistic sentiment and the fundamentals of the company that have changed almost not at all, which creates an attractive opportunity for investors to buy SpaceX stock.”

When the rocket finishes the work in the sky, the stock gets sold on the ground.

Falling to 100 bucks means Grok and Cursor are basically given away

Adam Jonas said that many investors he has spoken with expect the stock to trade down to $100 per share, arguing that next month’s first batch of shares will unlock, and some insiders will begin selling.

What he really wants to convey is what that price implies. Over half of the $300 target is attributed to the AI business. If the stock drops to $100, it effectively means the market assigns zero—or even negative—valuation to SpaceX’s AI division.

“Most of the investors we spoke with are discounting Grok and Cursor significantly,” Adam Jonas wrote. He laid out their reasons: compared with the space and connectivity businesses, AI requires too much capital spending, the monetization model is highly uncertain, and it also consumes too much time from management.

Here, we should first clarify the company structure. Today’s SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. In February, it announced the merger with xAI, and on May 6 it was completed—Grok was folded into the group. In June, it finalized the acquisition of AI coding tool Cursor, bringing developer Anysphere into the same group. Grok 4.5, launched in July, already uses Cursor’s data for training. The division that Jonas says the market is pricing at zero refers to these two pieces.

August 6 is the real stress test

The timeline is set. On August 4, SpaceX will release quarterly results through June 30. Elon Musk will personally host the earnings call. Market consensus is revenue of about $6.87 billion and an EPS loss of $0.28. Two days later, on August 6, roughly 910 million shares will unlock—turning stock with a total market value of more than $120 billion into shares that can be sold.

Where the stock lands makes this schedule even more sensitive. SpaceX priced its IPO in June at $135 per share, raising $75B—the largest IPO in history. In the session on June 16, it briefly surged to $225.64; today at $115.07, it is down about 49% from the peak and also below the IPO price by about 15%.

More than a month since listing, SpaceX has already gone through the emotional cycle that other companies might take several quarters to complete.

The rocket side, meanwhile, delivers as promised

This time, Starship’s test flights were delayed three times before launch attempts. On July 16, the first attempt was automatically halted during the final seconds of the countdown because multiple engines did not ignite properly. On July 23, the attempt was canceled due to unfavorable weather around Starbase. At 6:51 p.m. Eastern Time on July 24, it finally lifted off—that was also the first Starship test flight since the IPO.

The mission content was more closely aligned with real operations than in past attempts. For the first time, it used Super Heavy V3 booster engines; about two minutes after liftoff, the booster separated, completing a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. The upper stage also for the first time deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites in practice. As it reentered the atmosphere, its thermal protection shield performance clearly improved. Finally, it splashed down in the Indian Ocean without breaking apart and continued to transmit telemetry and imagery.

Starlink is the piece Adam Jonas thinks the market is valuing more clearly. In 2025, revenue is $11.4 billion, accounting for 61% of the company’s total revenue of $18.7 billion; as of the end of March, paid users reached 10.3 million, covering 160 countries and markets.