#夏日创作营 Bitcoin surged and then retreated to around $64,000. Recent price action analysis: this week, Bitcoin fell from above $67,000 to $63,700; as of July 25, the latest quoted price is about $64,000. This article reviews the background of this fluctuation from the macro, policy, funding, and technical perspectives, and makes an objective projection of possible future directions.

I. Market Review: After a High, a Rapid Drop This week’s Bitcoin price action shows a pattern of first rising then falling: early in the week, it gradually climbed from around $64,800, and at one point during the day it came close to $67,000. After touching $65,705 in the early hours of Friday, the price fell to $63,666 within about 7 hours, a drop of about 3%. The current price is consolidating narrowly around $64,000. Along with this pullback, the whole market saw about $312 million in leveraged positions liquidated, including about $87 million worth of long positions liquidated in Bitcoin.

II. Main Factors Behind the Pullback
1. U.S. Treasury yields rise, increasing macro pressure. Recently, the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.31%, clearly above the Federal Reserve’s target range for the policy rate. Expectations for a rate hike in September have warmed up, and news that the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs on multiple trade partners also pushed up inflation expectations. These factors together weighed on the performance of risk assets, including Bitcoin.
2. Pushback on digital asset regulation bill. The CLARITY digital asset bill, previously viewed by the market as a key positive, hit disagreements in bipartisan negotiations. The market assigns a probability of about 35% that it will ultimately pass. Major disputes center on regulatory loopholes and the allocation of enforcement authority. With Congress approaching its August recess, the likelihood of this bill being implemented within the year is lower, meaning regulatory uncertainty will likely remain in the near term.
3. Longs reduce positions voluntarily; leverage cascade. From trading volume, this drop was not dominated by fresh short positioning—short-side成交量 on the four-hour timeframe actually shrank. The downside was more driven by longs actively closing positions and taking profits. Notably, around $64,000 on bn exchange, buy limit orders appeared, providing some liquidity support.

III. Technical Analysis
On technical indicators, the KDJ turned downward; the MACD bullish momentum weakened somewhat; and at the daily level, the price-volume relationship shows an initial divergence, suggesting that spot buying pressure is relatively weak—current prices are being driven more by the derivatives market. Liquidation pressure levels based on Coinglass data: if price rises above $67,303, the cumulative liquidation pressure on the shorts at major exchanges is about $1.54B; if price falls below $61,193, the cumulative liquidation pressure on the longs is about $1.01B. This means that once price breaks in either of the above directions, it could trigger a short-term acceleration move.

IV. Two Possible Paths for the Next Phase
Scenario 1: Continue to probe lower. If the four-hour K-line close confirms a drop below $64,000, the short-term upward structure could be damaged. Downside targets to watch in order: around $63,350 (liquidity area); $62,335 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and an order block). If $62,000 is lost, price may further test the mid-term support zone of $59,356–$62,492. Some more cautious views hold that if the core support zone is effectively breached, a further move down into lower ranges cannot be ruled out in the medium term.
Scenario 2: Stabilization and rebound. If the four-hour K-line reclaims the $64,600–$65,000 area, the recent breakdown could be seen as a false breakout. Then price may retest around $66,200. If it can further break above $67,303, it could trigger short covering and push price higher. Some traders also believe the Bitcoin cycle is still accelerating, and this cycle may still set new highs before the next halving, but this judgment needs more fundamental support.

V. Current Market Characteristics and Summary
The current Bitcoin market shows these characteristics:
Volatility is low: one-year realized volatility is about 42%, close to relatively low levels in recent years. A low-volatility environment often implies a directional breakout may follow.
Market sentiment is cautious: the Fear and Greed Index is in the Fear zone, and market participants’ risk appetite is relatively low.
Overall pattern: from a medium- to long-term perspective, the market is more likely to continue with a wide-range consolidation pattern, and a trending move still needs to wait for clearer macro or policy signals.
Overall, $64,000 is a key battleground level in the short term for bulls and bears. The subsequent direction will depend on changes in U.S. Treasury yields, regulatory policy progress, and the liquidation competition in the derivatives market. At the current stage, it matters more to watch gains and losses around key zones than to predict a one-way direction.

The above content is compiled based on publicly available market information for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.