This short position paid off—the key wasn’t spotting a dump and then chasing it, but rather realizing that after the previous spike and pullback, the absorption just wasn’t able to keep up. The price spent a long time grinding at the high; it looked quite strong on the surface, but in reality, every time it tried to test higher, there were people selling into it—the feel was already off.

I started paying attention around 0.4506, and only entered once the rebound failed to regain and hold. There were also a few needle-like spikes in the middle; for a moment, they scrambled short-term short sentiment. Honestly, it was really grinding then—my open position almost made me want to exit early.

Later, the market moved from 0.4506 all the way down to 0.3006, and my view that the high was under pressure was confirmed by the order book. The result of this trade is recorded as +816.3%. It wasn’t because it had fallen that I turned bearish; it was because the sell pressure I’d seen earlier still hadn’t disappeared.

If you’ve been in crypto long enough, you’ll know the easiest thing to make people lose their composure is fake strength. Looking lively doesn’t mean there’s real absorption. Being able to wait until the timing plays out is more important than blindly chasing shorts.

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