#夏日创作营

In-depth analysis of this week’s gold market

I. Review of this week’s行情

This week, both domestic and international gold markets continued to trade in a range. London gold spot remained stable at around $4,064 per ounce, with minor fluctuations and a small intraday gain. In China, the Shanghai gold main contract and Gold T+D also followed the overseas market with a modest rise, while the trading-screen volatility remained limited. Specifically, in the beginning of the week, London gold spot held within a narrow range around $4,064 per ounce, as the market waited for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve’s policy and further developments in geopolitical conditions. Wednesday (July 23) became the core turning point of this week’s行情—an abrupt escalation in the Middle East situation. Trump publicly stated, “Every time Iran fires at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will bomb and destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant.” Safe-haven sentiment was instantly ignited. Spot gold surged by more than $80 in the short term, with an intraday peak touching above $4,160 per ounce, and the day’s gain at one point exceeded 2%. As of the close on July 23, London spot gold rose 1.28% to $4,129.79 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $4,137.91 per ounce. From Thursday to Friday, gold prices pulled back from their highs.

This week’s key market variables centered on expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy. Fueled by the rise in international crude oil prices, the market worried that inflation could rebound again. Expectations for restarting rate hikes in September continued to heat up, and with the Fed meeting approaching, many institutions actively reduced long positions, suppressing upside room for gold prices. However, central banks around the world continue to buy gold as normal course purchases. China’s central bank has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, and long-term official buying caps the possibility of a deep sell-off. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty periodically generates short-term safe-haven demand, making it difficult for gold prices to experience a sustained, sharp crash.

II. Technical indicator analysis

In terms of the moving average system, on the daily timeframe, the price broke above the 50-day moving average this week and briefly moved above the 100-day moving average. Short-term moving averages showed signs of a bullish alignment, but the pullback on Friday caused the 5-day and 10-day moving averages to begin sticking together, suggesting a balance between long and short forces. On the weekly timeframe, after several consecutive weeks of pullback, gold ended this week with a bullish candle with a long upper shadow, indicating heavier selling pressure overhead. Still, overall price remains above the 200-week moving average, and the medium- to long-term uptrend has not been broken.

In momentum indicators, the daily RSI briefly touched the overbought area near 72 during the spike on Wednesday. Then, as price fell back, it cooled quickly to a neutral-to-slightly bullish range of 55—60, indicating that short-term overbought pressure has been partially released, but no clear top signal has formed yet. After forming a golden cross this week, the MACD indicator’s red histogram bars kept expanding; although they narrowed somewhat on Friday, they still remained positive, suggesting medium-term momentum remains biased to the upside.

In terms of trading volume and open interest, on Wednesday, when prices broke above $4,100, trading volume expanded significantly, showing that safe-haven funds poured in. But the reduced volume on Thursday and Friday during pullbacks indicates that chasing higher prices was insufficient, and profit-taking sell orders began to appear. Looking at holdings changes of the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, there are signs of slight de-risking/trim holdings recently, suggesting that some institutional investors chose to realize profits at higher levels, creating a certain level of pressure on further upside.

In volatility terms, this week’s implied volatility for gold rose noticeably versus last week. Especially on the day the geopolitical event erupted, it jumped to an intrayear high, reflecting a sharp increase in the market’s pricing of short-term uncertainty. Going forward, investors should watch for the risk of rapid price pullbacks if volatility falls.

III. Key support levels and resistance levels

Core support levels: The first short-term support is $4,000 per ounce. It is an important, widely recognized psychological level during the prior pullback and the core defensive level for this round of gold prices. The second strong support is $3,920 per ounce, corresponding to the stage low during the previous pullback. If this level is lost, gold prices would reopen downside room.

Core resistance levels: The first short-term resistance is $4,100 per ounce. It is the upper edge of this week’s ranging range and the first key resistance that short-term bulls need to break. The second medium-term resistance is $4,200 per ounce, near the area of historical prior highs where supply from concentrated holdings is dense. Only if the Fed releases a clear dovish signal can it be broken effectively.

IV. Outlook for the next phase

This week’s gold market’s sideways pattern is unlikely to be broken quickly before the Federal Reserve meeting concludes. The current core factor suppressing gold prices is the market’s rate-hike expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy. U.S. Treasury yields have stayed at high levels, and the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset has declined. Each time gold rebounds slightly, it faces sell-pressure again.

But in the long run, sustained gold purchases by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainty, and the demand from emerging economies to optimize their foreign-exchange reserve structure will all provide long-term support for gold prices. The likelihood of gold experiencing a sustained, major crash is very low. Going forward, the Fed’s latest policy statements will be an important pivot for short-term trading. Ordinary investors should make rational selections based on their own real needs. To target long-term asset allocation, small-amount, staggered DCA-style investments can be used. For retail traders seeking short-term arbitrage, it’s advisable to stay on the sidelines and wait until the meeting outcome is in before making decisions.