An Introductory Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend Using Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC

I. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Primary trend (1-hour timeframe): The main downward trend that started after the historical high of 82,814 on May 6 is still ongoing. The price fell from 82,814 through a secondary peak on June 1 at 73,975 and a rebound peak on June 15 at 67,247, all the way down to the low on July 1 at 57,721, for a cumulative decline of 25,093. After bottoming on July 1, bulls展开 an ABC rebound (A-wave 64,597 → B-wave 61,470 → C-wave 64,660). After the C-wave ended, it pulled back to the low on July 13 at 61,750. A V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14-15, with a sharp surge to 65,510. From July 16-17, there was continuous heavy selling, dropping to 62,462. On July 18-19, price consolidated in the 64,200-64,900 range. On July 20, a dramatic V-shaped reversal occurred: after spiking in the early hours and then pulling back to 63,703, the afternoon saw a breakout on increased volume above 65,500, with the high reaching 65,744. On July 21, the strong uptrend continued, with the high reaching 66,916 (July 21, 14:00), setting a new high since July. From July 22-24, there was a significant pullback, with price falling from 66,916 all the way to the low on July 24 at 63,670, a pullback of 3,246. It fully gave back all the gains from July 20-21 and also formed a new low since July 20. Current price at 64,037 is near the July 20 low of 63,703. The turnaround signal of the primary trend has been negated, and price has returned to a downward channel.

Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the high at 66,916 on July 21 at 14:00, the short-term downtrend has been very clear. Short-term highs moved down from 66,916 (July 21 14:00) to 66,280 (July 23 00:00) → 65,450 (July 23 12:00) → 64,890 (July 24 00:00), forming a weak pattern of “lower highs continuing.” Short-term lows moved down from 65,107 (July 21 00:00) to 64,601 (July 23 08:00) → 63,670 (July 24 14:00), forming a weak pattern of “lower lows continuing.” On July 24 at 14:00, price bounced from 63,670 to 64,037; the rebound was only 367, which counts as a weak rebound after a selloff.

Dow Theory conclusion: The primary trend is still declining, and the rebound from July 20-21 has been fully negated by the sharp selloff on July 22-24. The short-term trend has entered a phase of strong downtrend. 63,500-64,000 is the core short-term support, and 65,000-65,500 is the key short-term resistance. If 63,500 breaks down, it opens downside room of 62,000-61,000; if 65,500 breaks through, the rebound may restart.

II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:

Top fractals: A strong top fractal formed at 66,916 at 14:00 on July 21, followed by continuous decline. A new top fractal formed at 66,280 at 00:00 on July 23, lower than the previous top of 66,916. A new top fractal formed at 64,890 at 00:00 on July 24, far below the previous top, showing that bearish strength has kept increasing.

Bottom fractals: A bottom fractal formed at 64,601 at 08:00 on July 23, but it was subsequently broken. A new bottom fractal formed at 63,670 at 14:00 on July 24, lower than the previous bottom at 64,601. The lower shift confirms the bottom-fractal structure, indicating that bull support is extremely weak.

Bi (strokes) and segments:

From the bottom fractal at 62,462 to the top fractal at 66,916 (July 21), it formed an upward stroke, with a rise of about 4,454, and the strength was extremely strong.

From the top fractal at 66,916 to the bottom fractal at 63,670 (July 24), it formed a downward stroke, with a decline of about 3,246, and the strength was extremely strong, completely swallowing most of the gains from the upward stroke.

Currently, from the bottom fractal at 63,670 to 64,037 (July 25 00:00), it formed an upward stroke (in progress), with only a rise of 367, and the strength is extremely weak.

Central (consolidation) zones:
The former falling center 62,500-64,000 has been retested. Current price 64,037 is near the upper boundary of that center, facing severe testing.

The former rising centers 65,000-66,000 and 66,000-66,900 have both been broken downward, becoming strong resistance above.

A new declining center is being built in the 63,500-65,000 range. The July 22-24 candlesticks were densely interwoven within this range. Current price 64,037 is located inside the center, slightly below the lower edge, indicating a weak consolidation tone.

A strong support center below is in the 62,000-63,500 range (July 16-17成交密集区).

Chan Theory conclusion: The downward stroke has extremely large strength (-3,246), while the new upward stroke has extremely weak strength (+367), showing that bears are fully in control. The old rising centers have all been broken downward. The new declining center is being formed in 63,500-65,000. In the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal can form around 63,500-64,000 to support an upside stroke restart toward 65,000; if 63,500 is directly broken, the selloff may accelerate, with targets at 62,000-61,000.

III. Elliott Wave Theory (Elliott Wave)
Based on 1-hour wave structure:
A higher-level five-wave decline (still ongoing):

1st wave: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), amplitude about -4,300

2nd wave: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), amplitude about +2,551

3rd wave: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), amplitude about -21,956 (main impulsive decline)

4th wave: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), amplitude about +8,152

5th wave (ongoing): 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), amplitude about -9,526 → 66,916 (July 21, rebound) → 63,670 (July 24, continuing decline)

ABC rebound correction (failed):
A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), amplitude +6,876
B wave: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), amplitude -3,127
C wave: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), amplitude +3,190
X wave: 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), amplitude -2,910

A new upward wave (failed, returning to the big 5-wave decline):
1st wave (new): 61,750 → 65,510 (July 15), amplitude +3,760
2nd wave pullback: 65,510 → 62,462 (July 17), amplitude -3,048
3rd wave (failed): 62,462 → 66,916 (July 21), amplitude +4,454 → but then it collapsed to 63,670, and the 3rd wave was negated

Current: It may be in the continuation phase of the big 5-wave decline, or it may be unfolding a new A-wave decline

Wave conclusion: The rebound of July 20-21 has been completely negated by the sharp selloff of July 22-24, and the new upward wave has failed. Currently, it may be in the continuation phase of the big-degree 5-wave decline, or a new down wave is unfolding. If it breaks below 63,500, the downward continuation is confirmed, with targets at 62,000-61,000. If it can find support in 63,500-64,000 and break above 65,000, a new rebound structure may unfold.

IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the crash phase on July 1, extremely clear volume expansion was seen. On July 14-15, there was volume-supported breakout with positive volume-price coordination. On July 16-17, there was a volume-backed crash. On July 20, a dramatic V-shaped reversal occurred: when price crashed to 63,703 in the morning, trading volume surged sharply (2.56B + 999M + 821M), and in the afternoon during the V-shaped reversal, the volume was even more astonishing (at 15:00, a super huge bullish candle of 2.74B). On July 21, the uptrend continued with increased volume (at 14:00, a volume-expanded bullish candle of 1.56B). From July 22-24, there were significant pullbacks; volume kept expanding. During the fall from 66,916 to 63,670, multiple volume-expanded bearish candles appeared, indicating heavy sell pressure from bears. By the end of the day on July 24, during the rebound from 63,670 to 64,037, volume shrank, showing that bulls’ counterattack strength was extremely weak. Overall, it shows a volume-price combination of “crash with massive volume + V-shaped reversal with even more volume + continued uptrend with rising volume + ongoing selloff with sustained heavy volume + rebound with extremely reduced volume.” During the decline, volume-price coordination was highly bearish.

Key volume-price nodes:

On July 20 15:00, a super massive bullish candle appeared (volume in the 2.74B range), confirming the rebound initiation.

On July 21 14:00, a volume-expanded bullish candle appeared (volume in the 1.56B range), confirming the rebound continuation.

On July 22 18:00, a volume-expanded bearish candle appeared (volume in the 1.23B range), confirming that bears began their offensive.

On July 23 08:00, a volume-expanded bearish candle appeared (volume in the 1.87B range), suggesting panic selling surged.

On July 24 14:00, a volume-expanded bearish candle appeared (volume in the 1.42B range). After a drop from 64,450 to 63,670, it confirmed the stage low.

On July 24 23:00, an extremely low-volume bullish candle appeared (volume in the 210M range). Price rebounded from 63,670 to 64,037, but bulls’ counterattack strength was extremely weak.

Recent volume-price status: At the end of July 24, there was an extremely low-volume rebound; price consolidated narrowly around 64,000, which is a weak rebound after a crash.

Volume-price conclusion: During the pullback from July 22-24, trading volume kept expanding, showing heavy sell pressure from bears. In the late session of July 24, there was an extremely low-volume rebound, with very weak bull counterattack strength. Key observation: If the rebound to 64,500-65,000 is met with volume-supported rejection, the decline may continue; if it breaks down below 63,500 with rising volume, the selloff accelerates.

V. Order Flow (Order Flow)
Volume distribution (Volume Profile): The recent 5-day volume control point (POC) (July 20-24) is at 64,089. Current price at 64,037 is about 52 below the POC, indicating the market is in a slight discount state below the value area (Below Value).

Current location analysis: Price 64,037 is slightly below the POC at 64,089, meaning it is below the value area. The Value Area is 63,871-65,767, and current price is near the lower edge of the Value Area (above 63,871), indicating short-term sellers have the advantage. The lower edge of the Value Area at 63,871 is short-term support, and 65,767 is short-term strong resistance.

High volume nodes (HVN):

65,000-66,000: Upper resistance HVN (July 20-21成交密集区; current strong resistance)

64,000-64,500: Core support/resistance HVN (near POC; current area of contention between bulls and bears)

63,500-64,000: Lower support HVN (July 24成交密集区)

62,000-63,000: Extreme support HVN (July 16-17成交密集区)

Delta analysis: During the up move on July 20-21, Delta stayed strongly positive (around the +5B level). During the pullback on July 22-24, Delta rapidly turned negative and stayed deeply negative (-4B level), confirming that active selling orders fully dominated. During the late-session rebound on July 24, Delta turned slightly positive, but the magnitude was extremely limited (+200M level), showing that buyer strength is very weak. Current Delta MA12 is at a deep negative level (-35M), indicating that selling power fully dominates.

Order flow conclusion: Price is slightly below the POC at 64,089, so sellers dominate in the short term. 64,500 and 65,000 above are two key HVN resistance levels; 63,500 and 63,000 below are two key HVN support levels. If Delta keeps turning positive with increased volume around 63,500-64,000 and rebounds, the market may stop falling in the short term; if Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 63,500, the selloff accelerates.

VI. Price Action (Price Action)
Support and resistance levels:

Strong resistance: 82,814 (stage high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,247 (June 15 rebound high), 66,916 (July 21 high)

Key resistance: 65,500 (July 20 breakout area), 65,000 (psychological level + POC upper edge), 64,500 (psychological level)

Key support: 63,500 (July 24 low area + the pivot between bulls and bears), 63,000 (extreme support), 62,462 (July 17 low), 61,750 (July 13 low)

Candlestick patterns:
On July 20 15:00, a super-large bullish candle appeared (body about +1,166), forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.

On July 21 14:00, a large bullish candle appeared, confirming a break above 66,500.

On July 22 18:00, a large bearish candle appeared (body about -830), forming a “bearish engulfing” pattern.

On July 23 08:00, a large bearish candle appeared (body about -1,219), forming a “shooting head (hanging man) / head-cutting” style pattern.

On July 24 14:00, a large bearish candle appeared (body about -780), dropping from 64,450 to 63,670 and forming a “three black crows” bearish pattern.

On July 24 23:00, a small bullish candle appeared (body about +367), rebounding from 63,670 to 64,037 with extremely weak strength, forming a “weak rebound” pattern.

Trend structure:
Short term: Since July 21 66,916, the downward channel has been forming. The upper trendline resistance is around 65,000, and the lower trendline support is around 63,000. The consecutive declines on July 22-24 confirm that the downward channel is effective.

Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6 at 82,814 is still valid. The rebound on July 20-21 failed to break that trendline effectively, and price has returned below the trendline.

Price action conclusion: In the short term, it is in a strong downtrend phase. The consecutive large bearish candles on July 22-24 confirm that bears fully dominate. 63,500-64,000 is the area of contest between bulls and bears in the short term: holding above it may stop the selloff and trigger a rebound; if it falls below 63,500, the selloff accelerates, with targets in the 62,000-61,000 range.

Comprehensive outlook
Dow Theory confirms that the primary trend is still declining, and the rebound from July 20-21 has been completely negated by the crash on July 22-24. Chan Theory shows that the downward stroke has extremely large strength (-3,246) while the new upward stroke is extremely weak (+367), meaning bears fully control the market. The new declining center is being formed in 63,500-65,000. Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the new upward wave has failed, and the market may now be in the continuation phase of a big-degree 5-wave decline. The volume-price relationship shows a highly bearish combination of “crash with sustained volume expansion + rebound with extremely reduced volume.” Order flow shows POC at 64,089, with price in a slight discount state; Delta MA12 is deeply negative, and selling dominates. Price action shows the “three black crows” bearish pattern, with bears fully dominating in the short term.

Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bearish scenario (high probability): If the rebound to around 64,500-65,000 forms a top fractal and is accompanied by selling with volume expansion, confirming that 65,000 resistance is valid, you can short. Targets: 63,500 → 63,000 → 62,000. Stop loss: 65,300. Since bears currently dominate, shorting the rebound is the main strategy.

Bullish scenario (low probability): If price shows a low-volume stop to the fall near 63,500-64,000, forms a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, you can try a long. Targets: 64,500 → 65,000 → 65,500. Stop loss: 63,200. You need to wait for a clear stop-fall signal.

Current status: 64,037 is in a weak rebound zone after the crash. Bears fully control the short term. Prefer shorting after the rebound meets resistance at 64,500-65,000, or wait for a clear stop-fall signal before considering a long.