Institutions Keep Increasing Bets Against the Market, Abraxas Capital Adds Shorts on Hyperl*q**d as BTC and ETH Are Still Stuck Under Resistance

While many retail traders are waiting for signs that the crypto market is truly reversing upward, some institutional players are doing the opposite. Abraxas Capital, a London-based managed fund, has once again increased its short position on Hyperl*q**d, right as Bitcoin and Ethereum are still struggling to break through the resistance levels that have been holding both back.
Abraxas Again Adds Ammunition to Its Shorts
Latest on-chain data shows Abraxas has just deposited additional funds into Hyperl*q**d to expand its short exposure, especially in ETH and BTC. This move continues a pattern that has been in place since the middle of last year, when Abraxas became widely known as one of the largest holders of short positions for BTC and ETH on the platform.
What’s interesting is that Abraxas is not alone this time. New data reveals that part of their ETH short positions are now linked to Fasanara Capital, another institutional asset manager with assets of about $5.7 billion. Combined, the ETH short positions held by these two institutions are recorded at $108 million, with Fasanara accounting for about $67 million and the remainder held by Abraxas. Both positions are currently in a loss on paper, given that ETH is now trading around $1,900, far above the level when some of these short positions were first opened.
Not Just a Downside Bet—There’s a Nuance Often Missed
It’s important to understand before rushing to conclude that this institution is going all-in against the market. Abraxas has long been known for running a delta-neutral and funding-rate arbitrage strategy through their flagship fund, the Elysium Global Arbitrage Fund. In other words, the large short position on Hyperliq**d is likely not purely a directional bet that prices will fall, but could instead be only part of a broader arbitrage strategy—where they hold long positions on other exchanges while shorting on Hyperliq**d to capture the funding-rate difference across platforms, plus the possible function of hedging spot exposure they hold elsewhere.
Even so, regardless of the true motives behind this strategy, the surface impact remains the same: selling pressure from large-scale short positions continues to weigh on market sentiment, especially when it appears alongside other institutions doing similar things.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Still Stuck Below Resistance
On the other hand, today’s market data shows Bitcoin approaching the short-term support area at $65,000, while the resistance above it is still strong enough to cap upside gains around $67,000. Bitcoin was opened at $66,081 yesterday, but it weakened again to around $65,000 this morning, reflecting selling pressure that hasn’t fully eased. Ethereum is moving in the range of $1,899 to $1,933, with the next technical resistance in the area of the 100-day moving average, nearing $1,944.
Today’s pressure is largely driven by renewed inflation worries as tensions between the United States and Iran have not yet eased, alongside oil prices still staying high—an overall combination that makes market participants more likely to hold back from risk assets, including crypto.
The Bigger Picture: ETF Flows and the Shadow of Fed Decisions
This year’s pressure on Bitcoin has also been tied to the less-than-friendly spot Bitcoin ETF flow record. Last June marked the worst month in the history of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, with net outflows reaching $4.5 billion, even though early July briefly showed some reversal in flows—sparking cautious optimism that the market’s bottom may have already been passed.
The biggest market focus, however, is on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 28 to 29, which is now seen as the most decisive catalyst for market direction in the near term. Unlike the expectations of rate cuts that dominated early this year, the Fed’s more hawkish tone from officials lately has led the market to start pricing in the possibility of rate hikes rather than cuts—a significant shift that has dampened investors’ risk appetite toward assets like crypto.
Analysts’ Views Still Divided
Amid this pressure, analysts’ views on where the market may go next remain fairly divided. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong previously said Bitcoin’s bottom may have already been passed around $60,000 last June, a view echoed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan. However, Grayscale analyst Zach Pandl is more cautious, saying Bitcoin could still fall further and only find its floor around September or October, with the caveat that this scenario could change if the Fed ultimately doesn’t end up raising rates and economic growth remains solid.
Standard Chartered continues to hold its optimistic year-end target of $100,000 for Bitcoin, even though this target looks far from current prices. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s prediction market points to a more moderate outlook: the highest odds suggest Bitcoin ends the year around $70,000 to $75,000, and Ethereum around $2,000 to $2,250.
What to Watch Going Forward
The combination of large institutional short positions that keep growing, technical resistance that has yet to be broken, and uncertainty around the Fed policy direction creates a picture of a market that could still be prone to volatility in the near term. For market participants, two things are worth monitoring closely over the coming week: whether Bitcoin and Ethereum ultimately manage to break their respective resistance levels with convincing volume, and how the results of the July 28 to 29 FOMC meeting reshapes expectations for interest-rate direction for the remainder of this year. Until that clarity is reached, the tug-of-war between institutions adding to shorts and some analysts’ optimism that the bottom has already been passed is likely to continue influencing price action in the days ahead.
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