Bitcoin’s four bear market cycles: the chart pattern is completely identical—what stage are we in right now?

I can’t help but share this after looking at the charts: I’ve mapped out Bitcoin’s four bear market cycles—2014, 2018, 2022, and our current 2026 round—and you’ll find the four market runs look almost exactly the same.

Each cycle will complete this same set of 6 stages:

1. Market peak: All-out euphoria, everyone shouting that Bitcoin will surge to $100k, $200k, even a million dollars. This cycle’s peak occurs in October 2025, when the price touched $126,000.

2. First wave of decline + a bull-trap fake rebound (market numbness phase): After the coin price crashes, it suddenly rebounds violently, and most people will think the bull market is back and pile in to buy the dip. This range is $110k~$120k in this cycle.

3. Deep breakdown sell-off: The market falls further, breaking below key support levels.

4. The final “dip-buy” pullback and trap: The market clings to the last hope of “this is the bottom,” experiences a rebound, and then starts another round of a brutal sell-off.

5. Dead cat bounce: After a weak rebound, confidence in the market is completely shattered, and traders no longer hold expectations.

6. Building the true major bottom: The market falls into silence, with long-term sideways consolidation; retail investors exit in large numbers.

Current market situation

Judging from the price action structure, we’ve already gone through the first five stages. Bitcoin is currently around $65,000, with a drawdown from the peak of close to 48%. All the technical features of a bear-market correction have already played out.

But there’s one key detail: based on the time cycle, only 260 days have passed since this cycle’s high; while in prior bear market rounds, on average it takes 365 days to grind out the final major bottom.

That means that if history fully repeats, there will be about another 3 months of sideways consolidation afterward, or a final sell-off that sweeps stop-losses.

Practical interpretation

- Based on the price action structure: The bottom is already very close. It’s unlikely to make new lows to trigger even deeper downside; the lows will gradually be lifted;

- Based on the time cycle: It’s still too early to be blindly optimistic. There’s still a possibility that the final wave of sell-off to harvest stop-loss orders will happen.

With a situation like this, I won’t go all-in on either long or short. I won’t assume that if I’ve “caught the major bottom” I’ll buy all at once, and I won’t sit empty waiting for some so-called “perfect dip-buying” level.

I use a staged position-building strategy, following Munger’s investment rules. The closer we get to the 200-week moving average, the more I gradually add. This both helps avoid missing a market reversal, and if another sell-off wave comes, I’ll still have ammunition to add more.

History won’t repeat word-for-word, but market behavior will rhyme and replicate. Traders who hold the full cycle rules will always have a steadier mindset than people who just churn news and guess up or down.

Bitcoin’s four bear market cycles: the chart pattern is completely identical—what stage are we in right now?

I can’t help but share this after looking at the charts: I’ve mapped out Bitcoin’s four bear market cycles—2014, 2018, 2022, and our current 2026 round—and you’ll find the four market runs look almost exactly the same.

Each cycle will complete this same set of 6 stages:

1. Market peak: All-out euphoria, everyone shouting that Bitcoin will surge to $100k, $200k, even a million dollars. This cycle’s peak occurs in October 2025, when the price touched $126,000.

2. First wave of decline + a bull-trap fake rebound (market numbness phase): After the coin price crashes, it suddenly rebounds violently, and most people will think the bull market is back and pile in to buy the dip. This range is $110k~$120k in this cycle.

3. Deep breakdown sell-off: The market falls further, breaking below key support levels.

4. The final “dip-buy” pullback and trap: The market clings to the last hope of “this is the bottom,” experiences a rebound, and then starts another round of a brutal sell-off.

5. Dead cat bounce: After a weak rebound, confidence in the market is completely shattered, and traders no longer hold expectations.

6. Building the true major bottom: The market falls into silence, with long-term sideways consolidation; retail investors exit in large numbers.

Current market situation

Judging from the price action structure, we’ve already gone through the first five stages. Bitcoin is currently around $65,000, with a drawdown from the peak of close to 48%. All the technical features of a bear-market correction have already played out.

But there’s one key detail: based on the time cycle, only 260 days have passed since this cycle’s high; while in prior bear market rounds, on average it takes 365 days to grind out the final major bottom.

That means that if history fully repeats, there will be about another 3 months of sideways consolidation afterward, or a final sell-off that sweeps stop-losses.

Practical interpretation

- Based on the price action structure: The bottom is already very close. It’s unlikely to make new lows to trigger even deeper downside; the lows will gradually be lifted;

- Based on the time cycle: It’s still too early to be blindly optimistic. There’s still a possibility that the final wave of sell-off to harvest stop-loss orders will happen.

With a situation like this, I won’t go all-in on either long or short. I won’t assume that if I’ve “caught the major bottom” I’ll buy all at once, and I won’t sit empty waiting for some so-called “perfect dip-buying” level.

I use a staged position-building strategy, following Munger’s investment rules. The closer we get to the 200-week moving average, the more I gradually add. This both helps avoid missing a market reversal, and if another sell-off wave comes, I’ll still have ammunition to add more.

History won’t repeat word-for-word, but market behavior will rhyme and replicate. Traders who hold the full cycle rules will always have a steadier mindset than people who just churn news and guess up or down.

If you find the content useful, please like it. Once the likes reach 30, I’ll post separately to explain Munger’s staged position-building rules in detail, as well as how I’m planning my staged buy-in positions in this phase.