Galaxy Research head: Probability of the CLARITY Act passing within the year drops to 30%

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Mars Finance reported that on July 24, Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said in a post that the probability of completing legislation for the 《CLARITY Act》 within 2026 has been lowered from the previous 50% to 30%. Thorn noted that while the bill’s consolidated text was officially released this Wednesday, totaling 616 pages and 104 provisions, the current vote shortfall is significant. On the Republican side, Senators Hawley and Paul are expected to vote against; since McConnell was hospitalized in June, he has not voted again. The number of reliable votes is about 50, still below the 60-vote threshold needed to clear the hurdle after a lengthy debate. On the Democratic side, a joint statement by seven senators who had previously participated in the negotiations said the current text is “insufficient,” especially opposing the bill’s ethics provisions—particularly the mechanism enforced solely by the Department of Justice and the 2029 sunset clause; meanwhile, Elizabeth Warren directly said the bill “should be rejected.” On the legislative timeline, Thorn believes the actual deadline to advance is July 30 (Wednesday), not the Senate’s official published adjournment date of August 7, because the procedural process itself requires several days. He said that if the bill cannot pass the Senate before adjournment, its outlook for becoming law within 2026 would be significantly reduced.
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