#夏日创作营

Weekly Bitcoin Market Summary and Analysis

I. Review of This Week’s Market

At the start of this week, Bitcoin continued its rebound trend from the late-June low of $58,000. On July 21, it successfully broke through the $66,000 level, reaching a peak of about $66,320, rebounding roughly 14% from the phase low. Then, affected by multiple bearish factors, the price pulled back slightly. As of July 24, Bitcoin was quoted at about $65,100, down marginally by 0.85% on the day.

This week’s market was influenced by several key factors at the same time: U.S. June inflation data came in weaker than expected, raising the probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in July to 84.5%, and cooling rate-hike expectations provided support for risk assets; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a phase of net inflows, supplying incremental buy pressure for the rally; however, heightened military tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices higher and U.S. Treasury yields moved upward. In addition, the probability of the U.S. “CLARITY Act” passing in the Senate fell from 46% to 38%, suppressing Bitcoin’s upside. As a result, prices have repeatedly consolidated around the $65,000 level, and after breaking above $66,000, clear signs of stagnation emerged.

II. Technical Indicator Analysis

At the weekly level, momentum indicators show that bearish momentum is gradually easing: the weekly RSI has been steadily rising from a low level, with Friday’s reading at 40, approaching the neutral 50 threshold from below. The weekly MACD just formed a golden cross this week, sending a mildly bullish signal and supporting the view that a medium-term repair trend may develop.

At the daily level, Bitcoin has held above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,152. In the short term, it shows a mild-to-strong bias, but the price is still below the 100-day EMA (about $67,973) and the 200-day EMA (about $73,950). This indicates that the medium- to long-term trend is still being suppressed by the moving averages. The current price action is only a repair after a deep adjustment, not yet entering a new round of one-way bull market. The daily RSI is currently 55, in a mildly bullish range but not in an overbought state, leaving room for further upside.

III. Key Support and Resistance Levels

‌Core support:‌ The first near-term support is $63,330, corresponding to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). If the weekly closing price falls below this level, the rebound trend will be damaged. The second strong support is $59,500, corresponding to the rising trendline support of this upswing; if it breaks, it will reopen downside room.

‌Core resistance:‌ The first near-term resistance is $67,973, corresponding to the 100-day EMA. Only after breaking above it can short-term rebound momentum be confirmed as releasing further. The second intermediate resistance is $73,950, corresponding to the 200-day EMA, which is the key level for strengthening the medium- and long-term trend.

IV. Outlook for the Next Phase

Based on historical seasonal patterns, Bitcoin’s average July gain over 13 years is 7.59%. The cumulative gain for July 2026 is currently 7.43%, almost fully matching the historical average. In the absence of strong external macro bearish shocks, the remaining two weeks are unlikely to see a major reversal. The current rebound is a repair after a deep adjustment, not the start of a new bull cycle. The future direction will still highly depend on ETF fund flows, the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, and the progress of U.S. crypto regulatory legislation.

If the price can hold the $63,330 support, it may then attempt to push toward the $68,000 level. If it breaks this support effectively, the price is likely to test down toward around $59,500 to find support.