BTC outlook for now

Haven’t analyzed BTC for a long time, and I also haven’t been doing BTC for a long time. Today I’ll spare some time to analyze it.
First, this Tuesday it reached 66,900, which is very close to the 67-68 resistance zone we discussed earlier, also around the June 16 pre-high. After that, BTC started pulling back from 66,900, and currently the pullback is to 64,300.
There are currently differing views in the industry about BTC’s future path. The main divergence is twofold.
The first is where the July-August peak will be.
I think 67-68 is the minimum target for a rebound. Whether it can reach a higher target depends on whether it can break through 67-68. If near 64 it doesn’t break down (4H moving average, HL), then it’s possible to continue breaking upward.
If 67-68 can break upward, the next target is around 71, which is the top of the previous value area.
And if 67-68 confirms as the top and falls, then the bottom of the current range is between 60,700 and 59,400. Without assuming an ultimate dump happens, then 60-59 should be the (within July-August) pullback bottom.
The second is whether there’s a question of an ultimate dump.
One of the big guys in the English section, DRP, has already turned to a different view, because too many people see the four-year cycle script and believe October is the bottom, leading him to think there won’t be an ultimate dump.
I still have some hesitation about this idea, because going against the four-year cycle to date has never led to good outcomes. Unless the four-year cycle gets disproven, we default to the four-year cycle still working.
If an ultimate dump doesn’t exist, then the bottom of the current value range, 59-60, is already a position relative to the cycle bottom. But if an ultimate dump does exist, then the bottom will be lower, and it will clearly break the 59,000-59,xxx range.
If an ultimate dump exists, the bottom should be at least 54,000, or even lower.
Summary:
With an ultimate dump — bottom at 54,000 or lower
Without an ultimate dump — bottom may be at 59-60
I think that if we’re being conservative (not ruling out that there won’t be an ultimate dump), then you could consider buying part of the position on the left side around 59-60, and then buying on the right side after October 5. That way you might not catch the absolute lowest price, but you can cover both possibilities, which is a fairly balanced approach.
To be honest, I’m also not fully sure whether there will be an ultimate dump. Maybe we’ll only know when October comes.
I don’t want to speak too confidently and mislead my family, especially those buying spot (whether the actual impact on my futures trading is that large with October being the bottom). Therefore, perhaps staged buys on both the left side and the right side is the safer choice.