#布伦特原油重返100美元 Geopolitical risk triggers a “break past 100”行情—where will oil prices go next?

On July 23, Yemen’s Houthis announced attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Brent crude futures jumped more than 7% on the spot, and after two months it returned above the $100 per barrel level. This is not an isolated sudden event—over the past few months, the Strait of Hormuz had been effectively shut down due to the US-Iran conflict, forcing Saudi Arabia to export crude oil via a detour through the Red Sea. Now the Houthis are directly hitting this alternative lifeline: the number of ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb fell by 34% on the day. With two major energy arteries facing the risk of disruption at the same time, market concerns about supply disruptions have been pushed to the extreme.

At a deeper level, the problem is that inventory buffers have been severely depleted. Analysts point out that global oil inventories have declined markedly due to prolonged geopolitical conflicts, greatly weakening the market’s ability to absorb supply shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, Brent crude could break $120 in the fourth quarter.

The ripple effects of oil breaking past $100 have spread quickly. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose above 4.7%, hitting a new high since January 2025; traders’ bets on the Federal Reserve raising rates in July jumped from about one-tenth a week earlier to one-third. The “stagflation ghost” is knocking again on the doors of global central banks.

Brent’s return to $100 is, in essence, a concentrated release of the geopolitical risk buildup from the past few months. When the world’s two most important energy arteries hang in the balance at the same time, this may just be the starting point for higher oil prices.