#美股# Over the past two days, many people have been discussing whether the Federal Reserve might suddenly hike rates. The reason is that international oil prices have continued to rise and the situation in the Middle East has escalated, causing the market to start worrying that inflation could pick up again.

As a result, bets in the rate-prediction market for a 25-basis-point hike in July have clearly increased. Over the past week, the probability of a rate hike rose from under 5% to about 25%.

But this doesn’t mean the market thinks a rate hike is certain.

Whether it’s CME interest-rate futures or forecasts from major institutions, keeping rates unchanged remains the mainstream expectation for now.

What’s truly worth watching is that if oil prices continue to stay at high levels, inflation expectations could heat up again in the coming months, and the Fed’s policy room may also be affected.

What the market is really trading isn’t whether a rate hike happens today, but whether liquidity will tighten again in the future.

That’s the key variable for BTC and all risk assets. #夏日创作营