#夏日创作营 A guide to understanding why gold, oil, and the US dollar are all rising together

Over the past two days, in macro terms, we’ve actually seen a rare phenomenon: gold, oil, and the US dollar are all rising together. You have to know that for most of the year—since the early-March US-Iran conflict—oil and gold have basically been like a seesaw.
The logic is: when a geopolitical war starts, the Strait of Hormuz gets sealed, oil prices rise, inflation rises, and then gold falls.
These past few days, the US-Iran conflict has become tense again. The US has launched airstrikes on Iran for 12 straight days, and oil prices have surged instantly to over $90. By right, gold should fall. But strangely, while oil is rising, gold this time is rising along with it—giving everyone the feeling that gold’s safe-haven attribute is back. So, is everything really back?
First, the answer: this round of gold following the rise is indeed for safe-haven purposes. But what it’s hedging isn’t the “danger” of geopolitics—it’s hedging debt risk. What’s being reflected here is global concern about a credit crisis in sovereign states. To make this clear, we need to bring “US Treasuries” into the conversation.
Recently, US Treasury prices have been falling steadily, and Treasury yields have been surging wildly. You should know that the market has an agreed-upon benchmark for whether US Treasuries have risk—for example, when the 30-year Treasury yield stands above 5%. Or when the 10-year Treasury yield reaches above 4.5%. In such cases, the market will consider that the price of US Treasuries has fallen too much already, and if that’s ignored, liquidity risk could arise. In simple terms, those two indicators act like warning signals.
So what’s happening now? The warning lights are practically flashing themselves out. The 30-year Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 12 straight days. This year, there have been 27 trading days where the 30-year Treasury yield has been above 5%. You have to know, this is the longest continuous stretch in nearly 20 years since the 2007 financial crisis. Last year’s China-US trade war and tariff war were extremely intense. Treasury yields surged too, but every time last year the 10-year Treasury yield reached or was about to reach 4.5%, Trump would TACO. But this year, yields have been surging like this, and Trump is still unmoved—carrying on as usual, hitting whenever he wants. So is it that Trump doesn’t want to?
No. The main reason is that the initiative in the current conflict basically isn’t in Trump’s hands. He wants to TACO, but he has no real ability to TACO. What’s happening now at the Strait of Hormuz is a full-on “chicken game.” Whoever blinks first has to give ground at the negotiation table later.
So for now, both sides are busy trying to be tougher. Today you blow up my ship; tomorrow I go blow up your bridge. Today you blow up my bridge; tomorrow I go blow up your data center. That’s why Trump can’t TACO. And that also means US Treasuries have to take the hits on their own. But the key is: if US Treasuries try to “carry it alone,” they can’t carry it. On one side, the supply of bonds keeps increasing—for example, the US government keeps issuing new debt. Those AI companies in the US keep issuing debt as well to finance themselves. But on the other side, the pool of liquidity is limited. The Federal Reserve won’t cut rates, and the money is being drained bit by bit. So people worry about the sustainability of the bond market. That’s how a bond credit crisis comes about.
When facing a credit crisis in US Treasuries, people think: is there any asset that isn’t tied to any country’s sovereign credit? After looking around, only gold remains. That’s why gold has been rising recently. So when oil rises right now, it reflects worries about energy. And when gold rises, it reflects worries about a credit crisis. Since they both rise together, it’s because multiple macro events happen to line up and resonate.
So someone will ask: what happens next?
Most likely, there will be differentiation.
Because whether it’s the US dollar and US Treasuries, or oil and gold, their rises and falls basically follow the same logic chain: war breaks out, so oil prices rise, inflation surges, lifting rate-hike expectations, which strengthens the dollar—pushing up Treasury yields. Then the Treasury credit crisis becomes too high, which leads to gold rising.
But war is full of variables. You have to know that Trump is forced to fight.
On one hand, in the earlier ceasefire memorandum, there was no definition of who the Strait of Hormuz actually falls under—that’s a focal point in future negotiations. Fighting now creates bargaining chips later.
On the other hand, if the US didn’t fight and just compromises easily, it would damage the US’s overall strategic interests and its voice in the Middle East. Even the hardliners in the US stock market would think Trump is too soft. So the war should be fought, but it won’t really be fought too viciously—certainly not to the point of risking your own life and fortune.
Because if fighting causes US Treasuries to collapse and triggers a systemic financial crisis in the US, that would be a disastrous trade-off.
So how do you judge when it will fight and when it won’t? Very simple: look at oil prices. Around 70, it calls for fighting. Around 100, it TACO. So when oil prices are low, Trump goes ahead and fights to his heart’s content. But once oil prices rise and inflation surges, it will affect the midterm elections, and surging Treasury yields will also trigger concerns about internal financial risks.
Therefore, a ceasefire and talks could happen at any time. And once a ceasefire happens, oil prices will fall back.
So will gold also drop along with it?
First, the answer: it might in the short term, but probably not in the medium to long term.
You have to know that the new Fed chair, Kevin Waller, has achieved multiple objectives since taking office by “raising rates with his words”:
1. In the short term, he temporarily lifted US Treasuries and in turn strengthened the dollar.
2. He suppressed the bubble in US stocks, triggering deleveraging across global equity markets. But if he continues to sound that tough, the marginal impact may start to diminish.
So at the Fed’s late-month meeting, without surprises, there may be some changes. If the market sees hints of rate cuts from Kevin Waller’s comments at the meeting, the US dollar index should pull back, and gold may be more likely to rebound. But if you truly want gold to move in a more solid way, you’ll need to wait until news of actual Fed rate cuts is firmly in place. $XAUUSD ‌