US Senate leader Thune eases up: the CLARITY Act won’t make it for an August vote! Polymarket’s chance of passing approval is down to 37%

The long-awaited U.S. crypto industry bill, the “Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act), is once again stuck. Senate Majority Leader John Thune loosened his grip, admitting that the bill won’t make it to a vote before the August congressional recess, and market confidence that it will pass this year has softened accordingly. Polymarket data shows that as of July 24, the probability that the CLARITY Act will pass this year is about 37%, far below a springtime peak that briefly broke through 80%. While the two parties have reached consensus on the core contents of the bill, what truly stalls the negotiations is the conflict of interests surrounding Donald Trump and his family’s crypto businesses.
(Background: Polymarket’s prediction for the year-end passage probability of the “CLARITY Act” fell to 32%, a new low this year)
(Background add-on: “Breaking news” — U.S. Senate Republicans push a revised “Clarity Act” bill; see five key regulatory highlights)

Table of contents

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• The bottleneck isn’t in the text—it’s in the Trump family
• “The votes are still there”
• There’s a window before year-end, but you have to grab the agenda

Key takeaways

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune loosened his stance: the CLARITY Act won’t be ready for a vote before the August recess. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, meanwhile, said he’s “a little more optimistic.”
• Polymarket shows the chance of passage this year is about 37%, far below the spring peak that briefly surpassed 80%. The two parties’ core positions are aligned; the sticking point is the conflict of interest in the Trump family’s crypto business.
• Wintermute policy head Ron Hammond said bluntly that “the votes are actually there, it’s just that election politics are louder,” implying the real window comes after the midterms.

The U.S. crypto industry has been waiting through an entire congressional session for market-structure legislation, and it looks like it will have to wait a bit longer. This week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune loosened his outlook, saying the “CLARITY Act” (the Digital Assets Market Clarity Act) likely won’t be completed for a vote before the August congressional recess. His exact words left a trailing caveat: “I at least want to get CLARITY moving and see where the votes are.” The phrase “see where the votes are” effectively puts all the variables before year-end right on the table.

The gambling market’s reaction is the most candid. Polymarket data shows that as of July 24, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is about 37%, essentially cut in half compared with the springtime frenzy when it briefly broke above 80%. The industry had originally pinned a deadline to August 7; after that date, the odds of passage in 2026 noticeably thin out.

The bottleneck isn’t in the text—it’s in the Trump family

The CLARITY Act aims to set a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, pushing crypto assets into mainstream financial systems. On this point, the two parties actually don’t have much disagreement. What truly holds up the negotiations is the conflict of interests tied to Donald Trump himself and his family’s crypto businesses.

Democrats want the bill to include stricter ethics provisions, limiting the president and federal officials from profiting through digital assets. Trump had previously clearly opposed such restrictions, but the Republican stance has recently softened, with a new draft floated that includes provisions barring elected officials from profiting from trading in digital assets.

But Democrats don’t buy it. They argue that the revised ethics provisions leave obvious loopholes and won’t stop the Trump family from reaping massive gains through projects such as meme coins. In other words, Republicans are patching the hole that says “officials can’t issue tokens,” while Democrats want to plug the hole that covers “the money the family has already taken”—the two sides aren’t fixing the same break.

“The votes are still there”

Another layer of resistance comes from Wintermute policy head Ron Hammond. He said that Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has recently urged Democrats to focus their firepower on Trump and related corruption issues before the midterm elections, which would directly reduce Democrats’ willingness to back the CLARITY Act.

Hammond believes that opponents in banking and the crypto industry slow down progress by delaying the agenda, but he still has confidence in the vote count itself: “The votes are actually already there; it’s just that election politics are louder.”

There’s a window before year-end, but you have to grab the agenda

Even if the CLARITY Act misses this recess, analysts say there is still a window before Congress wraps up its work by year-end. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt said Thune’s pessimism is “a little puzzling,” and added that he is “slightly more optimistic,” specifically pointing to the fact that the Senate is still in session during the first week of August.

But having a window doesn’t mean it comes with an easy route. High-priority issues such as government funding and defense are still ahead, so it’s likely the CLARITY Act pushed by the crypto industry gets squeezed to the back of the agenda. With the midterm elections approaching in November, once the balance of congressional power shifts, the timetable for crypto regulatory legislation could also face new variables.

What the industry is waiting for has never been just the bill, but a set of rules that allow digital assets to enter mainstream finance with legitimacy. Whether that door opens this year may only become truly clear after November.

Frequently asked questions

Why won’t the CLARITY Act make it to a vote before the August recess?

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said that negotiations between the two parties over ethics provisions haven’t been settled, making it difficult for the bill to reach a vote before the August congressional recess. The central dispute is the provision that limits the president and federal officials from profiting through digital assets, which ties directly to Donald Trump and his family’s crypto business.

What is the chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year on Polymarket?

As of July 24, Polymarket shows the probability that the CLARITY Act passes this year is about 37%, far below the spring level that briefly surpassed 80%. Analysts say that even if it misses the recess, there’s still a window before Congress wraps up by year-end, but it will be crowded out by issues such as government funding and defense, as well as the impact of the midterm elections.