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0.4588 to 0.6790, a 40-minute rally up 44%. This bullish candle directly blew the shorts to bits. But don’t rush to call it bullish—on the 4-hour timeframe, RSI has surged to 89.7, and the MACD histogram has been shrinking for 3 consecutive candles, which is a typical early-stage top divergence. The 0.6642 level is also exactly below the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement (0.6720), and out-of-market funds are hesitating whether to take the last step.
My plan: reduce 2/3 of my position at the current price 0.6640, and keep 1/3 as a cost-basis “observation post.” If within 15 minutes it can’t hold above 0.6720 (the prior left-side 24h high at 0.6790 is a psychological barrier), I will immediately liquidate the remaining position. The first support below is the 0.618 retracement at 0.6120. If it breaks down below 0.58 on increased volume (the neck line of the prior small range), that would confirm a short-term top; then the 0.50 level comes into view. Stop-loss must be placed at 0.6420—this is the bull-bear watershed of the 0.618–0.786 range. If it breaks, it indicates the aggressive breakout buying is already exhausted.
Don’t chase the tail. If it fails to push through 0.68 with strength, the probability of a pullback to 0.55 is higher than continuing to run higher. If you want a low entry, wait for a low-volume pullback around 0.60, then try again, with a stop-loss at 0.58. If you truly insist on chasing longs, cap the position size at 1%, stop-loss at 0.6550, target 0.6950.
Technical target levels: short-term, if it breaks above 0.68, the next resistance is 0.72 (the midline of the prior trapped zone). If it pulls back and confirms support, 0.62 is the ideal buy zone. Remember—after a gain of over 40%, a top divergence isn’t a joke. After a violent rally, it often corresponds to a violent dump. I’m not bearish because of my opinion; the candlesticks are telling me it’s tired.