there are stages to how every new chain plays out and if you understand them you don't panic when you're in one


the first stage is when everything gets bid, doesn't matter what it is
new chain launches, narrative is hot, liquidity floods in and everything with a ticker goes up
this is similar to price discovery, but more like asset discovery:
the market is figuring out what even exists on the chain
in this phase devs farm the new environment hard, launches are constant, and dd takes time to catch up
an idea that sounds good gets bid before anyone has verified whether the product is ready or if the team is real
that's just how it works when liquidity moves faster than information
then comes stage two: the dip
and stage two was always coming
that's the point
you cannot skip it, you cannot avoid it, every chain that has ever mattered has gone through it
the question was never if but when
what the vlad hack did was accelerate the pace at which we got there
we were heading into this phase regardless
the hack just compressed the timeline and made the landing harder than it needed to be (ripping the bandaid off)
and what makes it matter beyond just the price impact is the timing:
when a liquidity event that size hits during the natural transition into stage two, it doesn't just pull capital out
it pulls confidence out at the exact moment the ecosystem needed confidence to hold
so what you're left with now is what was always going to survive stage two anyway, just arrived at sooner
the ecosystem is still early and the people who understand that stage two is a feature not a bug are the ones allocating right now while everyone else is waiting for a sign that it's over
gonna follow up on this with stage 3
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