$BTC Oil prices rise again, putting pressure on inflation pricing

International oil prices once again broke upward, with geopolitical premiums continuing to be added. The market is now repricing upside inflation risks. The easing expectations triggered by the June CPI cooling faded quickly. The core issue is clear: this round of inflation decline benefited largely from falling energy prices; now crude oil has kept strengthening and will push prices higher in reverse across multiple chains—fuel, logistics, and chemicals—slowing the pace of the inflation decline.
Asset-pricing logic is being rebuilt accordingly: Treasury yields rebound, and the dollar strengthens. Long-duration, high-valuation assets face a stress test; high-volatility growth sectors such as semiconductors and memory continue to see valuation pressure. Money starts rotating defensively, and inflation-beneficiary assets such as energy and gold attract increased capital interest.
It is necessary to distinguish short-term sentiment from the medium-to-long-term trend: the current rally is mainly driven by risks to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also relies on crude oil exports to generate fiscal revenue, and an extreme scenario of a full blockade remains a low-probability event. But as long as oil prices stay at high levels in a choppy range, the Fed will find it difficult to pivot to easing quickly. Rate-cut expectations will continue to be pushed back, and even options for restarting rate hikes will again be considered by the market.
Two main observation lines going forward: whether oil prices can continue to hold firmly at high levels, and whether July inflation data shows a rebound. The macro environment has returned to a fragile equilibrium, and volatility in risk assets will be further amplified.
(For market commentary only and does not constitute investment advice)