July 24 BTC/ETH Daily Market Report丨Bearish factors are coming—are they baiting longs or is the bull side building up momentum? I’ll continue shorting from these levels!

“The Jiang Feng Trading Diary,” Episode 12: Candlesticks and indicators are just the result of price, not the reason for price!

After Bitcoin recently surged to around 66,924, it started to retrace, precisely picking up the high-position short from Episode 10 near 66,900. Now that the retracement has reached around 64,636 and started rebounding— is it a long-bait trap or is the bulls’ momentum building?



First, the conclusion: The price wants to break higher, but the macro environment doesn’t support it. All current rebounds are considered as baiting longs, so be cautious about chasing longs—shorting the rebounds at higher levels is the better strategy!

▶️For Ethereum: short at the current price 1885 directly, and add shorts near 1910–1935–1967
🏁 Targets: 1830～1800
🏁 Targets: 1760～1730⛳️Reduce 70%
🏁 1680～1550

▶️For Bitcoin: short at the current price 65450 directly, and add shorts near 66300–66900
🏁 Targets: 64000～62800
🏁 Targets: 62000～61300
🏁 Targets: 60000～59000

Next, let me break down the main bearish factors recently, to help with judgment:

September rate-hike expectations—82% probability, the market is repricing

CME data shows the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, while the probability of a rate hike is 33.7%. But the key to watch is September: the probability of keeping rates unchanged has dropped to 18.6%, while the probability of cumulative 25 basis points of hikes is as high as 57.2%, and the probability of a 50 basis points hike is 24.2%. Fed funds futures further indicate the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to about 82%.

What does this mean? The market has completely switched from the “end of the hiking cycle” narrative to the “hiking restart” narrative. And if the Fed meeting on July 29 releases any hawkish signals, this probability will continue to climb.


10-year US Treasury yields break above 4.71%—the anchor for global asset pricing is roaring

The 10-year US Treasury yield once rose 4 basis points to 4.71%, the highest level since January 2025. The higher the risk-free yield, the lower the attractiveness of a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin!


Brent crude oil breaks above $100 intraday—fuel for inflation

Brent crude oil futures surged above 100 at one point. As oil prices rise, they push inflation and drive rate-hike expectations—the transmission chain is already clearly established.


One more point worth watching: Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows of $225 million in a single day—ending seven consecutive days of inflows

Yesterday, total net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs were $225 million, officially ending the prior streak of seven consecutive days of net inflows. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT saw net outflows of $202 million in a single day.

Money is running. And it’s running fast


From the chart, it’s also clear that whether it’s Bitcoin or Ethereum, both prices have already broken below their trend lines, with heavy resistance overhead. I really can’t find any reason to go long. Based on the above, I personally believe any rebound is a good opportunity to enter shorts! But pay attention to using low position sizes to play it out—do not blindly go heavy. Fundamentals can change at any time, and there are many uncertainties. Please do not blindly use heavy position sizing!

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