#夏日创作营 CLARITY bill in limbo? Bitcoin under short-term pressure, what signals is the market giving off right now? 📶

The core logic behind Bitcoin’s recent consolidation and stabilization is mainly optimistic expectations that the U.S. CLARITY Act will take effect. But at present, the bill’s progress has hit an unexpected roadblock and has fallen into a deadlock between the two parties, with market estimates placing the final passage probability at only 35%. As policy expectations cool rapidly, sentiment on the board has weakened directly and BTC is visibly under short-term pressure.

Previously, the market broadly expected the bill to be implemented, believing it could unify U.S. crypto regulatory rules and open the channel for institutional capital to enter—an important fundamental support for this round of the rally. However, the Democrats are currently refusing to cooperate, negotiations have completely stalled, and two key disputes remain unresolved: first, the bill has regulatory loopholes—it does not restrict crypto trading by relatives of public officials, creating privilege risks; second, enforcement authority is assigned to the Justice Department, appointed by the president, creating a clear conflict of interest, with compliance heavily questioned.

The time window is also nearing its end. Congress is set to recess in August, and given the current stalemate, the bill is basically unlikely to be passed within the year. If the bill is delayed, the U.S.’s current ambiguous regulatory status will likely persist, the compliance expectations the market had been counting on will be completely dashed, and industry uncertainty will rise again. Against the backdrop of many countries around the world accelerating efforts to improve crypto regulation, the U.S. stalling will also miss the industry’s development window.

On the market board: during this pullback, trading volume has clearly shrunk. In the four-hour timeframe, short-side volume has fallen by nearly half, indicating that this is not a case of shorts actively dumping the market.

Price weakness is driven more by longs actively exiting and profit-taking being realized. On the daily chart, a preliminary divergence between volume and price is starting to appear: spot-buying strength is weakening, and the current market is more driven by derivatives capital. A weak pattern is gradually forming in the short term; the peak of this rebound is roughly around 66,900. If the rebound later returns to around 66,500 and long-side volume again shows signs of exhaustion, look out for potential opportunities in the short-side contest.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the market will most likely maintain a wide-range consolidation. The bear market is in the late stage, but it does not mean a bull market will start up quickly—there’s no need to be overly aggressive in expecting upside. $BTC ‌