Has gold’s “breathing room” arrived? French foreign trade bank’s latest assessment: the Fed may stay on hold throughout 2026 or for the full year

Recently, gold prices have been repeatedly locked in a standoff around the $4,000 mark, leaving everyone uneasy. But a major outlook just released by the French foreign trade bank has directly given the market reassurance: it expects that the Fed will not only avoid a rate hike next week, but will most likely keep rates unchanged throughout 2026. The “rate-hike Damocles’ sword” hanging over gold is, for now, removed.

Why did the Fed suddenly turn “dovish”? June data was too strong. Overall CPI month-on-month fell by 0.4%, while core CPI month-on-month was flat—an easing trend in inflation is spreading. On employment, June nonfarm payrolls added only 57k jobs; the core labor force participation rate also declined, suggesting it is getting harder to find work, so the Fed dares not make drastic moves.

Although there is plenty of internal debate within the Fed, the “dovish camp” has gained the upper hand. New York Fed President Williams clearly stated that current policy is “in a good place,” with inflation already having peaked. Even Chair Waller, a staunch hawk, defined the price increases brought by AI infrastructure as “one-off pressure.” As long as inflation does not blow up again, the Fed will keep observing.

What does this mean for gold? First, rate-hike expectations cool down, giving gold some breathing space. Once expectations that real yields have peaked become established, gold’s biggest suppressing factor is removed. Second, the United States’ trade policy is accelerating global central banks’ purchases of gold—this kind of structural demand is gold’s most solid foundation. Finally, even if gold may grind around above $4,000 in the short term, once it is confirmed that inflation is falling again, upside room for gold prices will be fully opened.

At this moment, we don’t need to guess which day rate cuts will come—we only need to confirm “no rate hikes,” and gold’s valuation repair will begin. The market right now is like the sea surface after a storm: the most dangerous time has passed. Hold your positions, set up on pullbacks— the storm is still there, but the lighthouse is already lit, letting profits fly for a little longer. #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $XAUT