Risk-aversion sentiment is heating up, and global capital is searching for a new safe haven

When tariff escalation coincides with worsening tensions in the Middle East, the first move global capital makes is to reduce risk exposure. The US dollar, US Treasuries, and some energy assets are once again drawing renewed inflows, while overvalued tech stocks become targets for de-risking.
This round of market volatility makes it clear that global financial markets have entered a “macroeconomic event-driven” phase. Any new developments regarding Iran, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, or international trade could quickly affect the performance of global risk assets.
For investors, the biggest variable right now is not company earnings, but the evolution of the international situation. If oil prices remain elevated, the pace of Fed rate cuts could slow again, and valuation pressure on tech stocks will persist; conversely, once tensions ease and oil prices fall, market risk appetite could rebound quickly.
Historically, wars often affect market sentiment in the short term, while technological innovation determines long-term wealth-creation capacity. Therefore, the market today needs to stay rational and avoid ignoring long-term industry trends due to short-term panic.
Over the coming period, energy prices, US tariff policy, and the situation in the Middle East will jointly determine the direction of global capital flows—and they will also be the three key variables influencing whether US stock tech sectors can regain strength. #夏日创作营