Will Nvidia’s moat be broken? Citrini is bullish on AMD, bearish on NVDA—has AI coding begun reshaping the chip landscape?

Recently, a new controversy has emerged in the AI chip market.

Nvidia, long viewed as having an absolute moat, is starting to face more and more challenges.

The market’s focus comes from Citrini Research’s view:

Bullish on AMD, cautious about Nvidia’s future growth.

The signal being sent behind this is:

AI chip competition may be entering a new stage.

Over the past two years, why was Nvidia able to become the biggest winner of the AI era?

The answer is simple:

It’s not only GPUs.

It’s an entire ecosystem.

What Nvidia is truly strong at is not just chips like H100 and Blackwell.

It’s:

CUDA.

The developer ecosystem.

Software optimization.

Laying out AI infrastructure.

This creates a huge network effect.

Many companies may not not know that AMD is competitive.

But:

The switching cost is too high.

However, the market is now discussing a new variable:

AI coding.

Why could AI coding change the chip landscape?

Because the way future AI model development is done may change.

In the past:

Engineers needed a lot of time optimizing code so that software fit the hardware.

In the future:

As AI-assisted programming abilities improve, the efficiency of code generation and optimization will rise.

This could reduce how difficult it is for software to adapt across different chips.

In simple terms:

In the past, Nvidia’s biggest advantage was its ecosystem moat.

If AI helps reduce migration costs for developers,

then AMD’s opportunity to catch up may increase.

That’s also why the market is starting to pay renewed attention to AMD.

Where is AMD’s advantage?

First:

Price competitiveness.

In large-scale data center deployments, cost has always been a problem businesses care about.

Second:

A more open ecosystem approach.

Compared with Nvidia’s closed software stack, AMD emphasizes open collaboration.

Third:

Cloud provider demand.

Big cloud service providers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google all want to reduce reliance on a single supplier.

This creates opportunities for AMD.

But will Nvidia really be easily replaced?

I think it won’t.

At least not in the short term.

The reason is obvious:

The biggest current demand in the AI industry is still rapid expansion.

Companies care more about:

Performance.

Stability.

Ecosystem maturity.

Not just price.

Nvidia’s biggest advantage right now:

is that the entire AI industry chain has already been built around it.

The real question isn’t:

Whether AMD can defeat Nvidia.

It’s whether the future AI market will shift from “one dominant player” to “multiple competitors.”

That’s what investors should truly focus on.

Because the history of the chip industry tells us:

There is no eternal overlord.

Intel once dominated the PC era.

Then it was changed by mobile chips.

Apple changed the mobile chip ecosystem.

Now in the AI era, there could also be new industry shifts.

From an investment perspective,

I think the next few years will see three trends in AI chips:

First:

Nvidia continues to dominate the high-end market.

Its ecosystem advantage is hard to replace in the short term.

Second:

AMD may gain more share.

Especially in cost-sensitive markets.

Third:

The growth of custom AI chips.

When cloud giants design their own chips, it will further fragment the market.

The biggest split in today’s market is:

Bullish on Nvidia believes:

AI infrastructure has only just started being built, and Nvidia still has the strongest moat.

Bearish on Nvidia believes:

High-growth expectations have already been priced into valuations, and future competition will compress profit margins.

And AMD’s biggest opportunity:

is to become the “second choice.”

My take:

Nvidia’s moat won’t disappear overnight because of one viewpoint.

But the market is already pricing in a future:

AI chips may no longer be a one-player game for Nvidia.

The real winner won’t necessarily be whoever has the strongest chips.

It will be whoever can find the best balance between:

hardware.

software.

ecosystem.

and cost.

A line from the trading room:

Nvidia wins from the AI explosion of the past two years, while AMD is betting on an open AI ecosystem for the future. When AI moves from the training stage into large-scale application, the chip war may shift from “performance competition” to “ecosystem and cost competition.”
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