Tariff policy changes + rising tensions with Iran—oil prices surge and weigh on risk assets. Can US stock tech shares still stay strong?

Recently, the market has shown a clear shift.

The core logic that previously drove the rise in US stocks—AI, expectations of rate cuts, and loose liquidity—is being hit by new variables.

Two factors are starting to influence the market again:

Changes in US tariff policy.

Escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

And the most direct market reaction:

Oil prices are rising.

Many investors see oil prices rise and think first:

“Energy stocks will benefit.”

But for the entire market, a rapid rise in crude oil prices isn’t simply a positive.

Because crude oil prices represent:

Inflation pressure.

Cost pressure.

Changes in market risk appetite.

If oil prices keep climbing, the market will start to worry again:

Will the Fed’s pace of rate cuts slow down?

Will corporate profits be affected?

Will consumer spending decline?

That’s also why tech stocks have faced pressure recently.

Why are tech stocks more easily affected?

Over the past year, the biggest driver of the rise in US stocks has been:

Investment in the AI industry.

Capital has kept flowing in:

Nvidia.

Microsoft.

Google.

Amazon.

Meta.

And the entire AI infrastructure supply chain.

But tech stocks have one characteristic:

High valuations.

What the market is pricing is future growth expectations.

So when the macro environment changes, high-valuation assets are usually the first to feel it.

Simply put:

If the market believes rate cuts are coming, tech stocks tend to rise.

Because the cost of capital falls and growth stock valuations improve.

But if the market starts pricing in:

“Inflation could rise again,”

then capital will readjust positions.

Why does the Iran situation affect the market?

The Middle East has long been the most sensitive region for the global energy market.

If geopolitical risk escalates, the market first trades:

Oil supply risk.

Next trades:

Inflation risk.

And finally affects:

Global risk assets.

Historically, whenever major geopolitical conflicts escalate, the market often shows a similar reaction:

Money seeks safe-haven assets.

Gold rises.

The dollar fluctuates.

The stock market faces short-term pressure.

Tariff policy impacts are more worth watching

The biggest impact from tariffs isn’t just trade.

It’s:

Costs.

If import costs increase, companies may face:

Lower profit margins.

Higher product prices.

Supply chain adjustments.

Ultimately, it may again affect inflation data.

That’s also what the market is worried about right now:

If inflation sees another round of reversal, expectations for Fed rate cuts could be pushed back.

So do US tech stocks have to end their rally?

My view:

Near-term pressure increases.

But it’s not that we can simply define it as the end of the trend.

The reason is simple.

The AI industry thesis still exists.

Global companies haven’t stopped investing in computing power, data centers, and automation.

What really needs to be watched is whether the market moves from “blindly buying AI” to “picking winners.”

In the future, funds may focus more on:

Whether there is real revenue.

Whether profits can be realized.

Whether there is a viable business model.

Next, the market will pay attention to three areas:

First:

US Treasury yields.

If yields keep rising, pressure on high-valuation tech stocks will increase.

Second:

Crude oil prices.

If oil prices continue to rise rapidly, the market will trade inflation again.

Third:

The Fed’s stance.

Whether rate-cut expectations continue is an important factor in determining tech stock valuations.

My perspective:

The market has entered a new stage.

Previously:

Money only cared about AI growth.

Now:

Money is starting to reassess macro risks.

This doesn’t mean the end of the tech era.

It means:

In the next stage, the people who make money won’t necessarily be whoever’s rising the fastest—but whoever can ride through macro fluctuations.

One line from the trading desk:

AI determines how high US stocks can go; inflation and interest rates determine how fast the market rises. When oil prices become a new variable, the market will move from chasing dreams back to calculating valuations. Short-term volatility increases, but real opportunities often emerge after the market reprices sentiment.