Gold safe-haven failing? Don’t use yesterday’s old map to find tomorrow’s way

Watching the market today, I’m sure many people feel as puzzled as I do: fighting in the Middle East has flared up again. Oil tankers in the Red Sea were attacked, Brent crude has surged and broken through $100. In theory, money should have rushed into gold as a safe haven. But the reality is that spot gold is being tightly held down at the $4,040 level, and it’s even drifting lower. Why has the traditional safe-haven logic suddenly stopped working?
In fact, to understand today’s price action, the key is to grasp a “deadly” transmission chain: war drives up oil prices, oil prices trigger inflation, and inflation forces expectations for tighter monetary policy. When U.S. Treasury yields are pushed above 4.7%, capital naturally abandons non-yielding gold and embraces the U.S. dollar. Put simply, this time the outbreak of war didn’t become a stepping stone for gold—it turned into an iron hammer that smashes the market. On top of that, with new U.S. tariffs taking effect, the “double kill” of a strong dollar and high interest rates leaves gold with basically no room to breathe in the short term.
Take a look at silver as well—today it’s falling even worse than gold. Besides being hit by the rate-hike knives alongside the broader market, a negative factor from a cooling of demand in China’s photovoltaic industry has also come down. With both financial and industrial attributes under pressure, silver’s downside volatility has been amplified to the extreme.
However, in the face of this rout, I personally think you shouldn’t overreact with panic. Gold’s long-term foundation is still there. Central banks around the world have been quietly buying gold, and the trend toward de-dollarization is firmly propping up the lower bound of the price. What we’re seeing now is more of a stampede by short-term funds under extreme rate-hike expectations.
Right now, all short-term wagers are waiting for the late-month FOMC meeting. The storm hasn’t passed yet. In this market full of disagreement, don’t rush to catch the falling knives—keep your hands under control, and wait for the bullets to fly for a bit. That’s what you should be doing now. #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $XAUT