ETH plunged from 1946 all the way down to the low of 1859; in the past 24 hours, it fell 3.18%, and the entire network liquidated positions worth $250 million. After spiking to 1958 and pulling back, it has continued to close red candles. Both MA21 and MA55 have been fully broken, and the short-term moving averages have formed a dead cross. But oversold signals have also shown up—KDJ’s J value has dropped to -3. Bulls and bears are at the real decisive moment—don’t pick a side; wait for the direction. Whoever wins, you follow.

Watch these two levels

Key above: 1900-1915. MA21 (1917) and MA55 (1888) are capping price. Break through and hold = bulls rebound, with targets at 1940-1958.

Key below: 1850-1860. It’s the 4-hour support band. A breakdown = bears take over, targeting 1820-1800.

Bull/bear logic

Reasons to go long:
① A mega whale accumulated 56.4k ETH in July, with an average cost of about $1742; unrealized profit of over $10 million is still being added as well
② KDJ’s J value has fallen to the oversold zone at -3; a technical rebound for the short term is right around the corner
③ Ethereum spot ETF has seen net inflows for 15 consecutive days; yesterday’s net inflow was $231 million

Reasons to go short:
① On the 1-hour chart, after topping at 1958, it has kept falling; the MACD has formed a dead cross and momentum has turned negative—bears have the advantage
② Brent crude breaks above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 4.7%, and the Fed’s July rate-hike odds have surged to 37.9%
③ The Iran-U.S. conflict has entered day 13; Trump threatens to launch a “major attack,” and risk appetite is being crushed

What do I do?

Breakout long: after a high-volume breakout and a sustained hold above 1900-1915, chase the long; stop loss below 1870; targets 1940-1958.
Breakdown short: after an effective breakdown of 1850-1860, short; stop loss above 1880; targets 1820-1800.
Middle zone: don’t move between 1860-1900—wait for direction confirmation before acting.

Oil price breaks $100, rate-hike pressure is piling on, and mega whales are catching the dip—who’s lying? Let the candlesticks tell you the answer. $ETH ‌