Didn’t expect that this time

Iran and Trump are both so tough
And they’re not backing down at all

The current macro environment is arriving faster and bigger than expected.
It’s clearly bad for risk assets.

As of now:
The US Dollar Index has risen to about 101.45, nearing a three-week high;
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury has risen to about 4.71%, and the 30-year is above 5.1%. Oil prices have broken back above $100; risks to Middle East shipping and the US’s next round of tariffs are jointly pushing up inflation expectations.

For BTC, gold, and tech stocks, this means triple pressure from real interest rates, the dollar, and risk premium.
And we haven’t even entered August yet—they’re already being suppressed and pulled back.

This month’s key point is: the state of the US-Iran situation and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision outlook on the 28th–29th.