After BTC was pushed from 61,800 to 67,150, it kept closing in red and slid from the highs in succession. The current price is 65,068, perfectly hovering near the 50-day moving average. On the 4-hour chart, after touching 66,924, it fell with consecutive bearish candles—high-profit positions at the highs crowded out and exited. Day 12 of the US-Iran conflict, oil prices breaking above $100, and the probability of Fed rate hikes surging to 37.9%—three major bearish factors piling on. But the ETF has still seen net inflows for 7 straight days, totaling nearly $1 billion, so the bulls haven’t completely surrendered. Bulls and bears are stuck here; whoever breaks first will feast.

Key levels above: 66,000-67,150. The 4-hour rebound high is 66,924. If it breaks through and holds, the bulls continue, targeting 68,000-69,000.

Key levels below: 64,200-64,500. A critical support zone on the 4-hour timeframe; if it breaks, the bears take control, targeting 63,500-63,000.

Bull/bear logic

Reasons to go long:
① Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had net inflows for 7 straight days, totaling nearly $1 billion, and BlackRock’s IBIT has seen daily inflows of over $116 million
② Mega whale jasonleo added to long positions near 64,940 to 2,934 BTC, with a total position of $190 million; big players are firmly going long around 65,000
③ The 4-hour chart’s EMA50 support is at 65,024; price is exactly pinned here—holding it is the springboard for a rebound

Reasons to go short:
① After surging to 66,924 on the 4-hour chart, it fell with consecutive bearish candles—short-term bears are in control
② Day 12 of the US-Iran conflict: Trump threatens a “major attack” on Iran; Brent crude broke above $100 intraday, and inflation worries flare up again
③ The probability of a Fed rate hike next week jumped from 10% to 37.9%, and the high-rate outlook suppresses risk assets

Breakout to go long: Volume-backed and hold above 66,000 to chase longs; stop loss below 65,200; targets 67,150-68,000.
Breakdown to go short: If it effectively breaks below 64,200, chase shorts; stop loss above 65,000; targets 63,500-63,000.
Middle zone: Don’t act between 64,200-66,000—wait for direction confirmation.

Oil breaks $100, rate-hike pressure piles on, and ETFs suck in money—who’s lying, bulls or bears? Let the candles tell you the answer. $BTC ‌