Morning Bitcoin/Ethereum Market Analysis: The Game Under a Technical Pullback Bounce and Macro Upheaval

On the morning of July 24, 2026, after Bitcoin surged to $66,924 on a 4-hour timeframe, it kept falling; the current price is $65,062. Ethereum also dropped to $1,877.37, with a stronger pullback than Bitcoin. The market is now in the most severe summer slump since 2026—Bitcoin is down about 30% year-to-date in the first half, and has retreated more than 50% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,080. However, the spot Bitcoin ETF fund flow outflow trend saw a key reversal in mid-July: it recorded net inflows for two consecutive weeks, and institutional demand has started to warm up. Wall Street institutions such as Standard Chartered and Bernstein still keep their year-end target prices unchanged at $100k to $150k, believing the current pullback is a buying opportunity rather than the start of a long-term bear market. This article combines technical and macro factors to deeply analyze the short-term tug-of-war between Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as the medium-to-long-term value anchors.

I. Macro backdrop: ETF fund outflow reverses; opportunities hide in institutional divergence

Entering July 2026, the crypto market is going through a typical round of “summer slump.” In June, Bitcoin recorded $4.06 billion of spot ETF net outflows, the largest single-month redemption since funds were launched in January 2024. The sell pressure from this wave of capital withdrawal mainly came from trimming by hedge funds and brokerages—Galaxy Research shows hedge funds reduced holdings by about 31,400 BTC, a decline of 39%; brokerages reduced holdings by about 18,800 BTC, a decline of 53%.

However, the turnaround quietly appeared in mid-July. From July 6 to 10, spot Bitcoin ETFs achieved positive growth for the first time after a long period of weakness, recording $197.4 million of inflows. From July 13 to 17, it posted a second consecutive week of net inflows of about $75.7 million, bringing cumulative net inflows to $51.35 billion. The signal from this reversal cannot be ignored—it suggests the prior institutional withdrawal wave lasting eight consecutive weeks may be ending.

More worth attention is the split in institutional behavior: while hedge funds and brokerages are selling, JPMorgan added about 3,000 BTC, and Wells Fargo increased about 4,000 BTC. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala bought more than 1,100 BTC. This “one type of investor is selling while another quietly buys” pattern precisely indicates that the market is not a uniform institutional retreat; rather, capital is being reallocated.

Wall Street’s views on year-end prices are polarized but both lean optimistic. Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick kept his 2026 year-end target price unchanged at $100k, and he treats a drop below $60k as a buying opportunity. Bernstein, meanwhile, maintains a more aggressive target of $150k, arguing that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle has begun to break down and that it has been replaced by a longer, institution-led bull market. The core difference between the two institutions lies here: Standard Chartered relies more on ETF fund-flow data, while Bernstein focuses more on structural changes brought by institutional adoption.

Over longer cycles, ARK Invest in its base-case scenario estimates Bitcoin’s market cap in 2030 at about $1.6 trillion, equivalent to roughly $750k to $800k per Bitcoin. That means the current $65k price still has significant allocation value in the eyes of long-term investors.

II. Bitcoin technicals: profit-taking at highs exits; the pullback trend hasn’t been reversed

On a 4-hour timeframe, after Bitcoin surged to $66,924 and then kept falling, there is currently a mild rebound and repair, with the price at $65,062. The key feature of this move is: the pullback trend caused by profit-taking leaving high levels has not been reversed. This rebound is a technical “snapback” within a downtrend, and sell pressure overhead remains heavy.

Two key resistance levels stand at $65,500 and $66,100. $65,500 is the lower boundary of the prior dense traded zone and the suppression level of the short-term moving-average system. $66,100 is the start zone of the current down-leg; if the price fails to break through and hold above it effectively, the short-side bias will continue to dominate. On the downside, first support to watch is $64,500, the recent swing low tested multiple times. If that level breaks, the next target will be $63,800—this is the lower boundary of the prior consolidation platform and carries strong psychological support.

From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin is currently above the key support band of $58,000 to $60,000. This zone has been tested by selling pressure multiple times this year and held. If a breakdown is confirmed, price could probe further down toward $55,000. Conversely, if price reclaims above roughly $65,800, it would be the clearest signal that the downtrend may be ending.

For trading, on a rebound reaching the $65,400 to $65,600 range, traders can set up short positions, with a stop-loss at $66,150. The first target is $64,500; if it breaks, look toward $63,800. If price pulls back and prints a “stop-lossing” candle in the $64,400 to $64,600 range, only then can a light long be tested, with a stop-loss at $63,700 and a target near $65,400. It needs to be emphasized that as long as the pullback trend has not been reversed, longs are counter-trend trades, so position sizing must be strictly controlled.

III. Ethereum technicals: tied to Bitcoin but weaker overall; shorts release more fully

Ethereum’s price action is highly correlated with Bitcoin, but the pullback is clearly stronger than Bitcoin’s. The prior high of $1,958.75 dropped sharply to the current price of $1,877.37, making the short-term bearish setup obvious.

Structurally, Ethereum’s resistance levels are at $1,905 and $1,930. $1,905 is the mid-point of a prior consolidation platform and the first hurdle for a short-term rebound; $1,930 is the launch point of the current sell-off, and breaking above it is more difficult. On the support side, $1,860 is the low area tested multiple times recently. If it fails, the next target points to $1,835, which is the lower boundary of an important prior support platform.

Ethereum’s relative weakness versus Bitcoin comes from two angles: first, its ecosystem narrative has been relatively flat in the first half of 2026; second, it also reflects market caution about the implementation progress of Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solutions. However, the BitMine platform recently increased its holdings by 27,084 ETH; its current share is about 4.7% of Ethereum’s total supply. Supply locked up could provide some support to the market.

In terms of trading, set up shorts when the rebound reaches the $1,900 to $1,910 range, with a stop-loss at $1,935. The first target is $1,860; if it breaks down, look toward $1,835. After a pullback and stabilization in the $1,855 to $1,865 range, you can add a small long position, with a stop-loss at $1,830 and a target near $1,900. Given Ethereum’s clearly weak short-term setup, long trades require even more caution; it’s recommended to wait for a clear “stop-the-fall” signal before entering.

IV. Strategy summary and risk warnings

The key contradiction in the current market is: a tug-of-war between short-term technical pullback pressure and medium-to-long-term institutional buy demand. From ETF fund flows, two consecutive weeks of net inflows in mid-July represent a positive marginal change, but whether it can continue still needs observation. From price structure, Bitcoin must reclaim above $65,800 to confirm that the downtrend is ending, while Ethereum needs to break above $1,930 to reverse the weak setup.

For short-term traders, the current strategy should mainly focus on selling short on rallies, with longs only as light trial positions after the rebound stabilizes. For medium-to-long-term investors, the current price range (around $65k for BTC and around $1,880 for ETH) under the framework of institutional long-term target prices ($100k to $150k) already has significant allocation value, but investors still need to prepare for position management and time-cost considerations.

Risks to watch include: uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest-rate policy; potential liquidation pressure on corporate Bitcoin holdings such as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy); and the risk of volatility being amplified by summer liquidity being insufficient.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on public data and technical charts and is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is extremely volatile, and investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance and make rational decisions.

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