Didn’t expect it this time—both Iran and Trump are being this confrontational, with absolutely no sign of backing down.

The current macro environment is arriving faster and bigger than expected, which is clearly unfavorable for risk assets.

As of now:
The US Dollar Index rises to about 101.45, nearing a three-week high;
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rises to about 4.71%, and the 30-year rate exceeds 5.1%. Oil prices have broken back above $100, and Middle East shipping risks along with the US’s next round of tariffs are jointly pushing up inflation expectations.

For BTC, gold, and tech stocks, this means triple pressure from real interest rates, the US dollar, and risk premia.
And before even August, it has already been suppressed and pulled back.

The most critical thing this month is still: the status of the Iran-U.S. situation and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome on the 28th–29th. $XAU
$CL $BTC
{future}(CLUSDT)