Market Recap

On Thursday, gold fell from $4,140, broke below the key support of $4,100, and bottomed out at $4,040. During the early-morning hours, it remained in a weak, range-bound consolidation. Overall, it showed a slow, downward drift.

Core Logic

1. Price first: The news flow is unpredictable. Focus on the actual impact of news on price and judge trading opportunities based on price action.

2. Trend confirmation: The market is currently within a descending channel. The weak early-morning close further confirms the downward trend, and there are insufficient conditions for a rebound in the short term.
Outlook

1. Asian session (before 11:00): It is highly likely to continue trading weakly, even accelerating lower, testing $4,040 and $4,020 support. In extreme cases, it could test $4,000.

2. If a rebound occurs: Even if there is a bounce, after approaching resistance levels such as $4,100 and $4,140, it will still face pressure to move lower. The overall trend remains bearish.
Trading Suggestions

1. Be cautious about going long; don’t blindly buy the dip. Current long-side conditions are not in place.

2. You may consider short-selling opportunities after a rebound into resistance levels, or following a support break with a trend-following short.

3. Strictly control position sizing and做好 risk management.$XAUUSD ‌