Yang Guang bit | July 24 $BTC Precise Strategy—Ride the Trend End to End

Key Takeaways

BTC surged earlier to 66,928 to form a stage top; the price met selling pressure and pulled back. It’s currently consolidating in a low range around 65,125. With the Fed rate-decision window getting closer, the market has started repricing the rate-cut path; longs are front-running to realize gains, and expectations for easing are largely priced in. Tensions in the Middle East remain in a relatively moderate standoff, and the risk-aversion premium continues to fade. On the capital side, spot ETF net inflows have sharply slowed; institutions’ willingness to chase longs at high levels is weaker. “Whales” have been continuously trimming their chips in batches at high positions, and there isn’t enough incremental short-term capital. After falling from the highs, the chart has entered a choppy repair mode: resistance lies at 65,600–66,000, while core support sits at 64,600–64,900. Today, trade with a range-consolidation mindset: prioritize selling rebounds (short at the highs), lightly test longs on pullbacks to support, strictly control position sizing, and avoid the risk of message-driven volatility before the rate decision.

Today’s Plan

Time to enter shorts: rebound to 65,600–66,000
Short add-on zone: rebound to 66,200–66,500
Stop-loss: above 66,900

Staggered take-profit
First target: 64,900–64,600
Second target: 64,200–64,000

Low-position long reference: pull back to 64,000–64,500, stop-loss below 63,600, targets 65,000–65,200—quick in, quick out

News & Capital Breakdown
I. International Finance & Geopolitical Developments

1. Finance: Rate-cut expectations are intensifying their tug-of-war. The CME Fed Watch tool shows the market assigns an 82% probability to a 25bp cut in July, but traders price only a 53% chance of another cut in September (data as of July 23). Powell’s remarks after the meeting are the focus; if he turns hawkish, it may trigger risk-off selling pressure.
2. Geopolitics: Progress in Iran–U.S. negotiations. Reuters reported on July 22 that both sides reached a temporary agreement on shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz; international oil prices fell by 3%. Demand for safe-haven assets cools, and BTC has lost part of its year-to-date geopolitical premium support.

II. On-chain & Institutional Capital Data

1. Institutional activity:
- ETF fund flows split: BlackRock IBIT saw $134 million inflow in one week (BRN data), but Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows of $280 million; overall net inflow is only $56 million (Coinglass statistics). Institutional sentiment appears heavy on waiting.
- Whale behavior: glassnode shows that addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have had net outflows of 7,250 BTC over the past 3 days, likely profit-taking.
2. On-chain positioning: unrealized net profit rate (NUPL) has fallen to 12%, nearing the mid-stage level of a bull market. For short-term holders, the share of unrealized gains is shrinking, and downside selling pressure risk is being released.
3. Futures market: Coinalyze data shows BTC futures open interest fell by 8%, with a long/short ratio of 1.15:1—market contention looks more cautious.

Key Levels: The 618 Fibonacci retracement level on the hourly chart (65,000) is the battleground for longs vs. shorts. A breakdown could extend the trend.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The Fed rate decision is approaching; chart volatility will sharply amplify. All trades must strictly set stop-losses to prevent quick “needle-poke” moves caused by sudden expectation mismatches in the news. $BTC ‌#美国对60个经济体加征关税