#美国对60个经济体加征关税 Against “Forced Labor,” Trump Rolls Out a New Global Tariff Framework

The U.S. Trade Representative says the related tariffs will cover 99.4% of U.S. trade｜《Caijing》Special Contributor Jin Yan; Edited by Su Qi in Washington｜The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) issued an announcement on July 23 local time, saying that under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, it will impose tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 countries and regions in the name of so-called “forced labor,” to replace the global import tariffs that are set to expire. Earlier this March, the USTR launched investigations into the 60 economies on the instructions of President Donald Trump, because those countries failed to establish and effectively enforce rules banning the import of goods produced with forced labor.

The Trump administration is continuing its aggressive trade protectionist approach. It has proposed a 12.5% tariff on imports from countries including 🇨🇳, Brazil, South Korea, Switzerland, and the UK, while goods from the EU, Canada, and Mexico would face a 10% import duty. The new tariffs will take effect at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 24, with exemptions for oil, natural gas, and food.

Bloomberg Economics Research predicts that the new measures will only raise the U.S. effective tariff rate from 10.7% to 11.2%, but the expansion of industry tariffs could trigger ripple effects. Goods covered by independent national security tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and parts will not be affected by the new tariffs. Certain food and agricultural import products, fertilizer, and energy products will also be exempted.

Olu Sonola, head of economic research at Fitch Ratings, told 《Caijing》 that the new tariffs announced on July 23 are less shocking than just “some noise.” It is not a repeat of “Tariff Liberation Day.” Forced-labor measures are widely expected; they have not brought any meaningfully unexpected surprises, and they preserve exemptions for about a quarter of imported products. This would keep the effective tariff rate below 10%, largely maintaining the recent status quo, with little effect on changing the outlook for growth or inflation. Overcapacity tariffs may still appear and would be layered on top of the measures from July 23. If their scope is broad enough to push the tariff rate back to 2025 levels, uncertainty would rise sharply, and the hit to growth and inflation would become harder to remove—especially if energy prices remain high for the long term.