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Sometimes I see posts saying things like, Technical analysis is useless. You cannot make money by drawing lines.
I admit that people who present technical analysis as nothing more than a few random lines and indicators have contributed significantly to this perception. However, poorly applied technical analysis does not mean technical analysis itself is unnecessary.
Technical analysis is not the art of predicting the future. It is a method of managing probabilities and risk by reading price, volume, momentum, market structure, and investor behavior.
Financial analysis tells you which company you may want to own. Macro analysis tells you what kind of economic environment you are in. Technical analysis tells you when to take a position and how much risk to accept.
When one of these is missing, you see only one part of the market.
Investing without technical analysis is like driving quickly through heavy fog. The outcome is obvious. Without technical analysis, you are blind.
A company’s financial results may be improving, its valuation may appear cheap, and a new growth story may be forming. However, if the market has entered a distribution and topping process, liquidity is tightening, and risk appetite is deteriorating, that positive story may not be enough to protect the stock in the short term.
Even good companies can lose significant value when purchased at the wrong time.
You can only recognize that the market, or an individual stock, is forming a top through technical analysis.
Good entry and exit points cannot be found through financial analysis alone.
When the market is strong and macro conditions are favorable, people who dismiss technical analysis may look intelligent. But when conditions begin to deteriorate, they are often the ones trying to catch the falling knife.
The correct debate is not fundamental analysis or technical analysis.
Financial analysis tells you what you own. Macro analysis tells you which direction the wind is blowing. Technical analysis tells you where you are and when you need to apply the brakes.
You may still be investing without using all three, but you are not seeing the entire market.