7.24 Gold Market Analysis｜Short-Term Turns Weaker; 4000 Becomes Key Again

Over the past few trading days, gold rebounded from around 4000 all the way to around 4165, but yesterday saw a clear spike-and-retrace. It has now returned to around 4050. The short-term four-day winning streak has been halted, and the market is starting to trade again the pressure from “high oil prices + high interest rates.”

The core of this pullback is not that safe-haven demand has disappeared, but that the situation in the Middle East has escalated, pushing up crude oil—thereby intensifying inflation concerns—strengthening expectations of the Fed taking a more hawkish stance—leading to a stronger US dollar and firmer US Treasury yields. US initial jobless claims fell to 187k, which further reinforces expectations that interest rates may remain at elevated levels.

So how should we look at what comes next?

My current view is: short-term consolidation with a slightly bearish bias—first, see whether 4000 can hold.

Resistance overhead: 4080 / 4120 / 4165
Support below: 4020 / 4000 / 3940

If gold can regain and hold above 4080—4100, it would indicate that yesterday’s sell-off was more of a pullback, and there may still be an opportunity to challenge 4120—4165 again.

But if 4000 is effectively broken down, the short-term structure will clearly weaken, and the next target to watch could be the 3940—3900 area. Right now, the technical picture also shows that gold has fallen back to just below the vicinity of the 20/21-day moving averages, making 4000 a very important psychological support.

One-sentence summary:

The attempt to push up to 4165 failed, and longs start to cool off; next, keep a close watch on 4000—if it holds, there can be a rebound; if it breaks, it may trigger a new round of further downside.

Gold’s biggest contradiction at this point remains: war provides safe-haven demand, but high oil prices are pushing up interest-rate expectations.

So at this level, I’m more inclined to wait for key levels to confirm rather than chase the move.

Only market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.$XAUUSD ‌