#BitcoinValuation

*How US Strategists Are Valuing Bitcoin in 2026*

In 2026, “number go up because halving” isn’t a valuation model anymore. US strategy desks are using 3 frameworks to price Bitcoin:

#### *1. Digital Gold Model*
BTC as 5-10% of gold’s market cap. If gold is ∼$15T, that puts BTC at $150K-$300K. This is the long-term bull case and what many endowments use for 10-year allocations.

#### *2. Macro Liquidity Model*
Price = f(Fed balance sheet, real yields, DXY). When global M2 expands and real rates fall, BTC outperforms. When TIPS yields spike like they did to 3%, BTC compresses. This is the 6-12 month trading model.

#### *3. Network Adoption Model*
Value per user, ETF AUM, and corporate treasury penetration. Every $10B in new ETF inflows = roughly X% price appreciation based on current float. Every Fortune 500 that adds 1% to treasury = new demand floor.

What’s different now: Models 2 and 3 matter more than Model 1. Short term moves are all macro. Long term is adoption.

Key levels US desks are watching:
- *Support*: $63,000 - where buyers stepped in multiple times
- *Resistance*: $65,000-$66,000 - break this and we retest highs
- *Bear case*: Drop below $63K triggers systematic selling

Strategy takeaway: Don’t use one model. Use all three. Trade the macro, invest on adoption, and anchor on the digital gold thesis.

#Bitcoin #Valuation #Macro #Institutional