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#FedPolicyPivot
*Bitcoin vs The Federal Reserve: The New Macro Trade*
Bitcoin in the US is no longer trading on halving cycles alone. In 2026 the dominant driver is Federal Reserve policy.
Grayscale’s research head notes that if the Fed forgoes further rate hikes and economic growth stays resilient, Bitcoin may have already bottomed. But with a 40% market probability of a July hike and 30-year TIPS yields near 3%, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets has risen sharply.
Institutional desks are now treating BTC as a macro asset. Key technical levels to watch are $63,000 support and $65,000-$66,000 resistance. A Fed pause shifts strategy to accumulation. A Fed hike shifts strategy to defensive positioning and cash.
For US investors, the question is no longer "where is the halving cycle" but "what is the Fed going to do next."
#Bitcoin #Fed #Macro #CryptoStrategy