#夏日创作营 SpaceX hits a new all-time low one month after listing: a trillion-level unlock flood weighs on prices—where is the SPCX bottom? A deep dive into SPCX’s next move, exploring the true bottom range of this selloff.

On July 24, 2026, shares of SpaceX with ticker SPCX broke below $100 intraday, falling 4.70% on the day and once again setting the lowest traded price since listing. Looking back at this round of action, the company began trading on Nasdaq on June 12 at an offering price of $135, then surged to a record high of $225.64 on the third trading day. In just a little over a month and a half, the stock price nearly halved—this frenzy-driven capital bubble burst quickly.

Drawing on big data, unlock rules, fundamentals, and historical patterns from recent U.S. “new listings” IPOs, this report provides an in-depth analysis of SPCX’s next move, exploring the true bottom range of this selloff.

The key trigger for this sharp selloff is the imminent arrival of a trillion-level unlock wave. SpaceX’s floating share base is extremely scarce. At the IPO stage, only 4.2% of shares were available for trading, meaning even a small amount of capital could push the stock up sharply. Then the first large-scale unlock will come on August 6, when 911.5 million shares of locked-up stock are released—equivalent to a market value of more than $109.0 billion. After that, unlocks will continue across multiple batches. Once full liquidity is reached in December, the tradable share float could surge by nearly 9 times. At present, short positions account for as much as 30% of the float. Short sellers have positioned themselves in advance to compete against the upcoming unlock supply and selloff pressure, further suppressing bulls’ confidence. The $175.5 threshold that would have triggered an additional 10% early unlock has already fallen through. While that reduces the supply of newly available shares, it also means the bulls have fully lost their prior valuation defense line.

From a fundamentals-and-big-data perspective, the company shows a polarized structure. The Starlink business is the only profitable segment. In 2025, revenue was $11.39B, operating profit was $4.42B, and the global satellite communications monopoly advantage remains solid. However, Starship R&D and xAI’s artificial-intelligence operations continue to burn massive amounts of cash. In 2025, the company’s total net loss was $4.94B, and losses widened further in 2026 Q1, making it difficult in the near term to close the loop toward overall profitability. In the early listing period, the market’s hype centered on Musk’s long-term space vision—stories like Mars migration—granting an ultra-high premium. As that heat fades, capital begins to take a more rational look at the company’s ongoing loss situation, making valuation mean reversion an inevitable trend.

Based on historical data from major IPOs in the U.S. over the past 15 years, all “star” IPOs typically experience a deep pullback within their first year. A “halving” after a surge is the norm. The shift from sentiment-driven pricing to performance-driven pricing usually requires a 3- to 6-month grind-down bottoming period. In the near term, the key inflection points are the August Q2 earnings report and the first unlock. If the earnings report—revenue and Starship test-flight data—comes in above expectations, the stock could stop falling and trade in a volatile range. If performance misses expectations, combined with concentrated cashing out by original shareholders and employees, the stock will very likely move down toward the $80–$90 range.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the bottom will not be a single price point, but rather a bottoming range characterized by consolidation. Before full liquidity is completed in December, SPCX is unlikely to launch a reversal trend and will most likely remain in a $90–$130 box range. Only when Starship commercial deployment is achieved, group losses narrow, and unlock-related shares are sufficiently digested will institutional capital return to build positions at scale. For ordinary investors, it is not advisable to blindly buy the dip at this stage. Waiting patiently for the unlock to land and for a fundamental turnaround to appear is the safer timing for initiating a position.

Risk warning: This article is based only on public market data and industry research reports for logic-based analysis of price movement, and does not constitute investment advice.